6. Figure captions
Figure 1. A) Map of all localities utilized in this study (black dots) along with the distribution of the Atlantic Forest (gray polygon). Blue lines represent three major rivers in the Atlantic Forest, from north to south: the São Francisco River, the Doce River and the Paraíba do Sul river. B) Interpolated observed (empirical) DXY values across all midpoints used for the global model. The black arrow indicates the region of the Serra do Mar valley.
Figure 2. A) Values of R2 for global models across different sets of predictors. B) Difference in values of R2 between global models for each set of predictors that include ecological traits in comparison to models using only environmental predictors.
Figure 3. Distribution of importance values for each predictor variable across 100 replicates of global models. A) Models including environmental predictors only; B) models including environmental and dispersal predictors; C) models including environmental and demographic predictors. D) models including all predictors.
Figure 4. Values of R2 for species-specific models, for each combination of species and locus utilized and each set of predictors. Dashed lines indicate the location in the graph where R2 = 0 (red line) and R2 = 0.5 (orange line). For each species and locus combination, four points are plotted across the x-axis, representing the four different sets of predictors.
Figure 5. A) Values of R2 for species-specific models across all four sets of predictors and all combinations of species and locus. B) Values of R2 for models with highest R2 across the four sets of predictors within each combination of species and locus.
Figure 6. Interpolated predicted values of DXY in the Atlantic Forest across 100 replicates of the global model. A) Mean of predicted DXY; B) standard deviation of predicted DXY; C) Difference between the predicted and observed values of DXY.