Figure 4. Microhabitat suitability predicted for each plot across the elevation gradient of our study system for three representative species with sites beyond their current thermal range limit (below range limit = solid points; beyond = hollow points; see Fig. S2) varies by species and life stage. Predictions are generated from model averaging results testing the effects of microhabitat on likelihood of recruitment (a-c), relative recruit counts (d-f), and 1-year seedling survival (g-i). Note that these predictions are not based on elevation, and that y-axis scales differ. Points are colored by the warmer, wetter West (green) or cooler, drier East (black) transects and size of points corresponds to observed recruitment (a-c), relative recruit counts (d-f), or proportion of seedlings that survived to one year (g-i) in a plot. Lighter colors for both transects indicate plots without recruitment and thus this size does not reflect an observed value. Full predictions are shown in Fig. S7.