Tables
Table 1. Model averaging results (or best model, when no other
models were within Δ AIC < 2, indicated with ’*’) for
assessing importance of different microhabitat variables in explaining
likelihood of recruitment (i.e. did seeds germinate or not), relative
recruit counts (i.e. how many seedlings recruited relative to maximum
recruit counts for the species), and 1- or 2-year seedling survival. ‘+’
indicates a positive parameter estimate and ‘” indicates a negative
parameter estimate. Columns are colored by the expectation of those
microhabitat variables being directly (blue) or indirectly (green)
affected by climate change. Blank cells indicate that the parameter was
not chosen in model selection. Because many of our soil loggers were
compromised by animal disturbance, we only used those variables for
species that showed no response at sites with compromised data:
recruitment and recruit counts for M. nervosa, E. lanatum (summer
maximum soil temperature, summer minimum soil moisture); seedling
survival for R. ursinus (summer plant-height minimum temperature,
summer minimum soil moisture). These variables are listed as ’NA’ for
other species. Summer plant-height minimum temperature was never
selected so it is not included in this table. Because of the link
function in our binomial GLMs, the results can be interpreted as
increasing or decreasing the log odds of recruitment or seedling
survival, corresponding to lower or higher likelihoods, respectively.
Abbreviations are as follows: Yr = year; Tr = transect; Canopy = canopy
openness; F:B = fungus:bacteria; C:N = carbon:nitrogen; WHC = water
holding capacity; Sum Soil Temp = summer maximum soil temperature; Sum
Soil Moist = summer minimum soil moisture; Wint Soil Temp = winter
minimum soil temperature; Snow = spring days with snow.