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\begin{document}

\title{The Effect of Flood Exposure on Insurance Adoption among US Households}



\author[1]{June Choi}%
\author[1]{Noah S. Diffenbaugh}%
\author[1]{Marshall Burke}%
\affil[1]{Stanford University}%


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  \date{May 17, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Despite increasing exposure to flooding and associated financial
damages, estimates suggest more than two-thirds of flood-exposed
properties are currently uninsured. This low adoption rate could
undermine the climate resilience of communities and weaken the financial
solvency of the United States National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).
We study whether repeated exposure to flood events, especially
disaster-scale floods expected to become more frequent in a warming
climate, could spur insurance adoption. Using improved estimates of
residential insurance take-up in locations where such insurance is
voluntary, and exploiting variation in the frequency and severity of
flood events over time, we quantify how flood events impact local
insurance demand. We find that a flood disaster declaration in a given
year increases the take-up rate of insurance by 7\% in the following
year, but the effect diminishes in subsequent years and is gone after
five years. This effect is more short-lived in counties in inland states
that do not border the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. The effect of a flood
on takeup is substantially larger if there was also a flood in the
previous year. We also find that recent disasters are more salient for
homeowners whose primary residences are exposed to a disaster
declaration compared to non-primary residences. Our results provide a
more comprehensive understanding of the salience effect of flooding on
insurance demand compared to previous studies. Overall, these findings
suggest that relying on households to self-adapt to increasing flood
risks in a changing climate is insufficient for closing the insurance
protection gap.%
\end{abstract}%



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