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\begin{document}

\title{First order controls of avulsion in river deltas}



\author[1]{Octria Adi Prasojo}%
\author[2]{Trevor B. Hoey}%
\author[1]{Amanda Owen}%
\author[1]{Richard David Williams}%
\affil[1]{University of Glasgow}%
\affil[2]{Brunel University London}%


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  \date{June 07, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Changed hydrological regimes, sea-level rise, and accelerated subsidence
are all putting river deltas at risk across the globe. Deltas may
respond to these stressors through the mechanism of avulsion. Decades of
delta avulsion studies have resulted in conflicting hypotheses that
avulsion frequency and location are upstream (water and sediment
discharge) or downstream (backwater and sea-level rise) controlled. In
this study, we use Delft3D morphodynamic simulations to investigate the
main controls over delta avulsion. Avulsion timing and location were
recorded in six scenarios modelled over a 400-year period with varying
alluvial slopes upstream of a delta slope break (1.13x10-4 to 3.04x10-3)
within a range representative global deltas. We measure several
independent morphometric variables including avulsion length, delta lobe
width, channel width at avulsion, delta topset slope and sediment load.
Correlating these variables with the avulsion timescales observed in our
model shows that avulsion timescale is mostly controlled by sediment
load, which in turn is controlled by the alluvial slope upstream of a
delta slope break. With higher stream power index in steeper alluvial
slopes, more sediment can be carried within a channel, resulting in more
frequent avulsions. Our results are consistent with the avulsion
timescale derived from an analytical solution, 19 natural deltas and
downscaled physical laboratory deltas. These results help mitigate delta
avulsion risk by focusing management efforts on variables that primarily
control avulsion in a river delta, but also induce further debate over
whether sea-level rise may, or may not, trigger more avulsions in river
deltas.%
\end{abstract}%



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