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\begin{document}

\title{Trajectories of land and ocean primary~ productivity across the Arctic
coastal margin and sensitivity to coastal sea~ ice decline~~~~~~~~}



\author[1,2]{Cynthia Garcia}%
\author[3]{Max Berkelhammer}%
\author[3]{Larry Stock}%
\affil[1]{Department of Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois at Chicago}%
\affil[2]{National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration}%
\affil[3]{Affiliation not available}%


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  \date{May 28, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The rapidly warming Arctic and its effects on sea ice extent, hydrology,
and nutrient availability influence terrestrial and marine carbon cycles
in a number of interrelated ways. While these changes likely have shared
effect on adjacent land and ocean systems, we often study them in
isolation, making it difficult to understand response patterns and
trajectories in these carbon cycle hotspots. Using almost two decades of
remotely-sensed Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) in Arctic coastal
margins, we test how the magnitude and direction of change in
productivity covary. We observed that coastal marine productivity is
four times that of coastal tundra productivity in the pan-Arctic. From
2003-2020, GPP in both the coastal land and ocean increased by
approximately 12\%. This common trajectory seems to be a product of
increasing open water conditions, increased terrestrial water balance,
and nutrient availability as driven by the regional warming. On a
sectoral scale, we proposed a Coastal Synchrony Index (CSI) to compare
the rate of change of ocean productivity relative to land productivity
and show that ocean productivity is increasing faster than land
in~\emph{inflow margins} of Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk,~\emph{outflow
margins} of Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and Greenland/Iceland, and
in~\emph{interior margin} of Eurasia. Additionally, we see strong
coherence between land and ocean GPP on 4--5-year cycles illustrating
that coastal synchrony observed over decadal timescales is mirrored over
interannual timescales. These cycles align with variations in open water
duration, emphasizing the pivotal role of reducing shorefast ice on
terrestrial and marine productivity trajectories.%
\end{abstract}%



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This is a preprint and has been submitted for peer review.

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