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\begin{document}

\title{Coincident evidence demonstrates evolutionary aspects and the potential
expansion of Rubus geoides under climate change}



\author[1]{Ingrid Hebel}%
\author[1]{Estefania Jofre}%
\author[2]{Ricardo Jaña}%
\author[1]{Christie Ulloa}%
\author[1]{Inti Gonzalez}%
\author[1]{Margarita Caceres}%
\author[1]{Valeria Latorre}%
\author[1]{Luis Bahamonde}%
\author[1]{Gonzalo Paez}%
\author[1]{Julio Yagello}%
\affil[1]{Universidad de Magallanes}%
\affil[2]{Instituto Antártico Chileno}%


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  \date{June 12, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
According to the IPCC, the observed and projected changes in temperature
and precipitation patterns are changing. There is a need to know the
probable states of vegetation in the future to ensure meeting the goals
of sustainable development of productive activities promoted by the
United Nations. Our model species, Rubus geoides Sm, is distributed in
many places in the southern Patagonia region. Since the first European
settlements the distribution of this species has become more restricted,
because of overgrazing and the change of land use by mining, forestry,
livestock, expansion of cities, and the interest in functional and
nutraceutical food that makes people harvest fruits directly from
natural populations. We use a multidisciplinary approach by the union of
scientific knowledge from morphology, genetics, and niche modeling to
establish the dynamics of the species in the past and under future
climate change scenarios. This effort can help determine the state of
vegetation resources and give them the tools for decision-makers for
conservation and management efforts and their food potential under
climate change scenarios. Our results showed a significant difference in
blooming among populations revealed by gene flow from specific
populations. Also, we observed moderate genetic differentiation among
populations, mixed ancestry in some populations, private alleles in
specific sites, and species expansion demonstrated by the genetic
analysis and the potential distribution model. This paper discusses the
evolution of this species, considering the dispersal after the last
glacial maximum (LGM) and which challenges we have in front of the
change in land use and the future of this species in this changing
climate.%
\end{abstract}%



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