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\begin{document}

\title{How to Achieve a 50\% Reduction in Nutrient Loads from Agricultural
Catchments under Different Climate Trajectories?}



\author[1]{Maarten Wynants}%
\author[2]{Johan Strömqvist}%
\author[1]{Lukas Hallberg}%
\author[1]{John Livsey}%
\author[3]{Göran Lindström}%
\author[1]{Magdalena Bieroza}%
\affil[1]{Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences}%
\affil[2]{Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute}%
\affil[3]{Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)}%


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  \date{June 06, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Under persistent eutrophication of European water bodies and a changing
climate, there is an increasing need to evaluate mitigation measures for
reducing nutrient losses from agricultural catchments. In this study, we
set up a daily discharge and water quality model in Hydrological
Predictions of the Environment for two contrasting agricultural
catchments in Sweden to forecast the impacts of future climate
trajectories on nutrient loads. The model predicted a slight increase in
inorganic nitrogen (IN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads under RCP2.6,
likely due to precipitation-driven mobilisation. Under RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5, the IN loads were forecasted to decrease from 16\%-26\% and
21\%-50\% respectively, most likely due to temperature-driven increases
in denitrification and evapotranspiration. No distinct trends in TP
loads were observed. A 50\% decrease in nutrient loads, as targeted by
the European Green Deal, was backcasted using a combination of
mitigation scenarios, including i) a 20\% reduction in mineral
fertiliser, ii) introducing cover crops, and iii) stream mitigation by
increasing the size of floodplains and wetlands. Target TP load
reductions could only be achieved by stream mitigation, which is likely
due to legacy effects and secondary mobilisation within agricultural
streams. Target IN load reductions were backcasted with a combination of
stream mitigation, fertiliser reduction, and cover crops, wherein the
required measures depended on the climate. Overall, the diverging
responses of nutrients to climate change and mitigation scenarios
indicate that water quality management needs to be tailored to the
catchment characteristics, and to the spatial and time specific effects
of climate change.%
\end{abstract}%



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