\documentclass[10pt]{article}

\usepackage{fullpage}
\usepackage{setspace}
\usepackage{parskip}
\usepackage{titlesec}
\usepackage[section]{placeins}
\usepackage{xcolor}
\usepackage{breakcites}
\usepackage{lineno}
\usepackage{hyphenat}





\PassOptionsToPackage{hyphens}{url}
\usepackage[colorlinks = true,
            linkcolor = blue,
            urlcolor  = blue,
            citecolor = blue,
            anchorcolor = blue]{hyperref}
\usepackage{etoolbox}
\makeatletter
\patchcmd\@combinedblfloats{\box\@outputbox}{\unvbox\@outputbox}{}{%
  \errmessage{\noexpand\@combinedblfloats could not be patched}%
}%
\makeatother


\usepackage{natbib}




\renewenvironment{abstract}
  {{\bfseries\noindent{\abstractname}\par\nobreak}\footnotesize}
  {\bigskip}

\titlespacing{\section}{0pt}{*3}{*1}
\titlespacing{\subsection}{0pt}{*2}{*0.5}
\titlespacing{\subsubsection}{0pt}{*1.5}{0pt}


\usepackage{authblk}


\usepackage{graphicx}
\usepackage[space]{grffile}
\usepackage{latexsym}
\usepackage{textcomp}
\usepackage{longtable}
\usepackage{tabulary}
\usepackage{booktabs,array,multirow}
\usepackage{amsfonts,amsmath,amssymb}
\providecommand\citet{\cite}
\providecommand\citep{\cite}
\providecommand\citealt{\cite}
% You can conditionalize code for latexml or normal latex using this.
\newif\iflatexml\latexmlfalse
\providecommand{\tightlist}{\setlength{\itemsep}{0pt}\setlength{\parskip}{0pt}}%

\AtBeginDocument{\DeclareGraphicsExtensions{.pdf,.PDF,.eps,.EPS,.png,.PNG,.tif,.TIF,.jpg,.JPG,.jpeg,.JPEG}}

\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}
\usepackage[english]{babel}



\usepackage{float}








\begin{document}

\title{Nowcasting the Number of Chinese Students Studying Abroad in Times of
COVID-19 Using Baidu Index}



\author[1]{xu sun}%
\author[2]{Yanyan Shi}%
\author[2]{Wangshu Sun}%
\affil[1]{Dongbei University of Finance and Economics}%
\affil[2]{Affiliation not available}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 21, 2024}


\begingroup
\let\center\flushleft
\let\endcenter\endflushleft
\maketitle
\endgroup





\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ministry of Education of
the People's Republic of China has not released the annual number of
students studying abroad. This paper first proposes a monthly indicator,
network public opinion factors for studying abroad, by the Principal
Components Analysis (PCA) method using the daily search data of Baidu
Index of study abroad keywords from 2011 to 2022. Then Mixed Data
Sampling (MIDAS) regression is implemented for nowcasting the annual
growth rate of the number of Chinese students studying abroad from 2020
to 2022. Finally, we evaluated the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the
annual number of students studying abroad by comparing the prediction
results of the MIDAS model and the Grey model. According to the results
of MIDAS model, the predicted number of Chinese students studying abroad
in 2020, 2021 and 2022 are respectively 756600, 737171, 803022, and the
annual growth rate are respectively 7.548\%, - 2.568\%, 8.933\%. The
sharp decline in 2021 means the COVID-19 pandemic has a serious adverse
effect on international student mobility, and the rapid rebound in 2022
shares one sign of a possible rapid growth of the number of Chinese
students studying abroad comeback.%
\end{abstract}%



\sloppy


\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`Manuscript_anonymous.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/627157/articles/648218-nowcasting-the-number-of-chinese-students-studying-abroad-in-times-of-covid-19-using-baidu-index}

\selectlanguage{english}
\FloatBarrier
\end{document}

