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\begin{document}

\title{Simulation of temperature extremes over West Africa and the Eastern
Sahel with MPAS}



\author[1]{Laouali Ibrahim Tanimoune}%
\author[2]{Gerhard Smiatek}%
\author[3]{Harald Günter Kunstmann}%
\author[4]{Babatunde Joseph Abiodun}%
\affil[1]{Federal University of Technology  of Akure, Nigeria}%
\affil[2]{Karlsruhe Institute of Technology}%
\affil[3]{Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)}%
\affil[4]{University of Cape Town}%


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  \date{May 25, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
A large ensemble of 51 simulations with the Model for Prediction Across
Scales (MPAS) has been applied to assess its ability to reproduce
extreme temperatures and heat waves in the area of West Africa and the
Eastern Sahel. With its global approach the model avoids transition
errors influencing the performance of limited area climate models. The
MPAS simulations were driven with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea
ice extent as the only boundary condition. The results reveal moderate
cold biases in the range from -0.6\selectlanguage{ngerman}° to -0.9° C for the daily mean
temperature and -1.4° to -2.0° C for the area mean of the daily maximum
temperature. The bias in the number of tropical nights ranges from +3 to
-10 days. An underestimation by up to 50\% is also present regarding the
number of summer days. The heat wave duration index is underestimated
regionally by 10\% to 60\%. Compared to the reanalyses, the biases
revealed by the MPAS simulations are generally smaller than with
measured observational reference. The results from long term runs and
from short term runs with selected SST years are similar. Shortcomings
in the reproduction of the temperature and precipitation indices found
in the present investigation indicate that the global MPAS approach does
provide a fidelity similar to that of the regional climate models.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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