Figure 3. Prediction maps with a resolution of 1 x 1 km2 giving the probability of mountain hares being white across Norway on ordinal days 105, 135, 165, 255, 285, and 315. The probability of being white was predicted using the model output and the environmental covariates contained in every cell.
Timing of spring and autumn moults varied slightly between years (Figure 4). From 2013 onwards the 95% CIs are consistently narrower in spring than in autumn, which probably results from increased sample sizes in spring (Suppl 4). For the spring intercepts, multiple years have non-overlapping CIs for 90% white, which signifies the start of spring moulting, and 90% brown, which signifies the end of spring moulting. For example, 2013 does not overlap with 2014 and 2017 does not overlap with 2018. For the autumn intercepts, the brown CIs, signifying the start of autumn moulting, overlapped in most years. The CIs for 90% white, signifying the end of autumn moulting, overlapped in all years. The time taken for moulting in spring to finish, represented by the number of days between 90% of hares being white and 90% of hares being brown, ranged between 46 days in 2019 and 64 days in 2013 and 2018 (Suppl 9). The time taken for moulting to occur in autumn ranged between 38 days in 2011 and 72 days 2013. In autumn, both the shortest and longest time taken were in years with limited sample sizes (Suppl 4). Therefore, these results should be viewed with caution.