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\begin{document}

\title{A Bayesian model for inferring total solar irradiance from proxies and
direct observations: application to the ACRIM Gap}



\author[1]{Ted Amdur}%
\author[1]{Peter Huybers}%
\affil[1]{Harvard University}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{June 11, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Differences among total solar irradiance (TSI) estimates are most
pronounced during the so-called ``ACRIM Gap'' of 1989--1991, when
available satellite observations disagree in trend and no observations
exist from satellites with on-board calibration. Different approaches to
bias-correcting noisy satellite observations lead to discrepancies of up
to 0.7 W/m\textsuperscript{2} in the change in TSI during the Gap. Using
a Bayesian hierarchical model for Total Solar Irradiance (BTSI), we
jointly infer TSI during the ACRIM Gap from satellite observations and
proxies of solar activity. In addition, BTSI yields estimates of noise
and drift in satellite observations and calibration for proxy records.
We find that TSI across the ACRIM Gap changes by only 0.01
W/m\textsuperscript{2}, with a 95\% confidence interval of {[}-0.07,
0.09{]} W/m\textsuperscript{2}. Our results are consistent with the PMOD
CPMDF and Community Consensus TSI reconstructions and inconsistent with
the 0.7 W/m\textsuperscript{2} trend reported in the ACRIM composite
reconstruction. Constraints on the trend across the ACRIM Gap are
primarily obtained through constraints on the drift in the Nimbus-7
satellite that are afforded by overlapping satellite and proxy
observations.%
\end{abstract}%



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