\documentclass[10pt]{article}

\usepackage{fullpage}
\usepackage{setspace}
\usepackage{parskip}
\usepackage{titlesec}
\usepackage[section]{placeins}
\usepackage{xcolor}
\usepackage{breakcites}
\usepackage{lineno}
\usepackage{hyphenat}





\PassOptionsToPackage{hyphens}{url}
\usepackage[colorlinks = true,
            linkcolor = blue,
            urlcolor  = blue,
            citecolor = blue,
            anchorcolor = blue]{hyperref}
\usepackage{etoolbox}
\makeatletter
\patchcmd\@combinedblfloats{\box\@outputbox}{\unvbox\@outputbox}{}{%
  \errmessage{\noexpand\@combinedblfloats could not be patched}%
}%
\makeatother


\usepackage{natbib}




\renewenvironment{abstract}
  {{\bfseries\noindent{\abstractname}\par\nobreak}\footnotesize}
  {\bigskip}

\titlespacing{\section}{0pt}{*3}{*1}
\titlespacing{\subsection}{0pt}{*2}{*0.5}
\titlespacing{\subsubsection}{0pt}{*1.5}{0pt}


\usepackage{authblk}


\usepackage{graphicx}
\usepackage[space]{grffile}
\usepackage{latexsym}
\usepackage{textcomp}
\usepackage{longtable}
\usepackage{tabulary}
\usepackage{booktabs,array,multirow}
\usepackage{amsfonts,amsmath,amssymb}
\providecommand\citet{\cite}
\providecommand\citep{\cite}
\providecommand\citealt{\cite}
% You can conditionalize code for latexml or normal latex using this.
\newif\iflatexml\latexmlfalse
\providecommand{\tightlist}{\setlength{\itemsep}{0pt}\setlength{\parskip}{0pt}}%

\AtBeginDocument{\DeclareGraphicsExtensions{.pdf,.PDF,.eps,.EPS,.png,.PNG,.tif,.TIF,.jpg,.JPG,.jpeg,.JPEG}}

\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}
\usepackage[ngerman,english]{babel}



\usepackage{float}








\begin{document}

\title{Comparative Analysis of TEC Prediction Models During Geomagnetic Storm
and Quiet Conditions Using Diffusion, Transformer, and SARIMA}



\author[1]{Yuhuan Yuan}%
\author[2]{Guozhen Xia}%
\author[3]{Xinmiao Zhang}%
\affil[1]{Wuhan University}%
\affil[2]{Department of Space Physics, School of Electronic Information, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China}%
\affil[3]{wuhan university}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 22, 2024}


\begingroup
\let\center\flushleft
\let\endcenter\endflushleft
\maketitle
\endgroup





\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
Total Electron Content (TEC) of the ionosphere under fluctuating
geomagnetic conditions plays a pivotal role in space-based communication
and navigation systems. Periods of geomagnetic storms have a significant
effect on the ionospheric TEC, thereby impacting the precision of Global
Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) as well as other communication
systems. This study evaluates the performance of three predictive
models: Diffusion, Transformer, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated
Moving Average (SARIMA) by forecasting TEC during different geomagnetic
storm conditions. Diffusion model predicts by simulating the random
processes that govern ionospheric variability, and SARIMA model relies
on statistical principles to emulate seasonality, trend, and
autocorrelation structure within data. Our study uses TEC and
geomagnetic data to differentiate between storm and quiet periods,
evaluating each model's predictive accuracy in these distinct scenarios.
Performance was benchmarked against the Center for Orbit Determination
in Europe's (C1PG) 1-day ahead ionospheric forecasts. This study
specifically concentrated on the performance of the prediction models
within a singular grid cell located at the exact geographical
coordinates of 114.3\selectlanguage{ngerman}° E longitude and 30.5° N latitude. The study
indicates that all three models exhibit exceptional forecasting
abilities during both geomagnetic storm and quiet periods.
Significantly, Diffusion Model surpasses the others, achieving an
outstanding 85.64\textbackslash{}\% of its predictions within the
high-correlation interval ranging from 0.95 to 1.00 during quiet
geomagnetic periods, while the C1PG model records 51.66\%. Otherwise,
during strong geomagnetic storm periods, Diffusion model operates at a
75.41\% accuracy rate, while the C1PG achieves a 71.77\% accuracy rate.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



\sloppy


\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/figure1/figure1}

\end{center}
\end{figure}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/figure2/figure2}

\end{center}
\end{figure}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/figure3/figure3}

\end{center}
\end{figure}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/figure4/figure4}

\end{center}
\end{figure}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/figure5/figure5}

\end{center}
\end{figure}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/figure6/figure6}

\end{center}
\end{figure}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/figure7/figure7}

\end{center}
\end{figure}

\selectlanguage{english}
\FloatBarrier
\end{document}

