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\begin{document}

\title{Impacts of Forced and Internal Climate Variability on Changes in
Convective Environments Over the Eastern United States}



\author[1]{Megan Elizabeth Franke}%
\author[1]{James Wilson Hurrell}%
\author[1]{Kristen Rasmussen}%
\author[1]{Lantao Sun}%
\affil[1]{Colorado State University}%


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  \date{May 24, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Hazards from convective weather pose a serious threat to the continental
United States (CONUS) every year. Previous studies have examined how
future projected changes in climate might impact the frequency and
intensity of severe weather using simulations with both
convection-permitting regional models and coarser climate and Earth
system models. However, many of these studies have been limited to
single representations of the future climate state with little insight
into the uncertainty of how the population of convective storms may
evolve. To thoroughly explore this aspect, a large ensemble of Earth
system model simulations was implemented to investigate how forced
responses in large-scale convective environments might be modulated by
internal climate variability. Daily data from an ensemble of 50
simulations with the most recent version of the Community Earth System
Model was used to examine changes in the severe weather environment over
the eastern CONUS during boreal spring from 1870-2100. Results indicate
that forced changes in convective environments were small between 1870
and 1990, but throughout the 21st century, convective available
potential energy and atmospheric stability (convective inhibition) is
projected to increase while 0-6 km vertical wind shear decreases.
Internal climate variability can either significantly enhance or
suppress these forced changes. The time evolution of bivariate
distributions of convective indices illustrates that future springtime
convective environments over the eastern CONUS will be characterized by
relatively less frequent, less organized, but deeper, more intense
convection. Future convective environments will also be less supportive
of the most severe convective modes and associated hazards.%
\end{abstract}%



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