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\begin{document}

\title{Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation to parameterize
subsidence by phreatic groundwater level lowering in the South Flevoland
Polder, the Netherlands}



\author[1]{Manon Anna Maria Verberne}%
\author[2]{Kay Koster}%
\author[2]{Aris Lourens}%
\author[3]{Jan Gunnink}%
\author[4]{Thibault Candela}%
\author[4]{Peter A. Fokker}%
\affil[1]{Utrecht University}%
\affil[2]{TNO - Geological Survey of the Netherlands}%
\affil[3]{TNO-Geological Survey of the Netherlands}%
\affil[4]{TNO}%


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  \date{May 27, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
This research targets disentangling shallow causes of
anthropogenically-induced subsidence in a reclaimed and urbanized
coastal plain. The study area is around the city of Almere, in the South
Flevoland polder, the Netherlands, which is among the countries' fastest
subsiding areas. The procedure consists of integrating synthetic
Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data with
high-resolution phreatic groundwater and lithoclass models, and a
database containing construction details. The two main parts of the
workflow are isolation of the InSAR points of structures without a pile
foundation and a data assimilation procedure by Ensemble Smoothing with
Multiple Data Assimilation. The shrinkage of surficial clay beds by
phreatic groundwater level lowering is identified to be the main cause
of shallow subsidence in the area, with an average contribution of 6
mm/year. The history-matched physics-based model predicts that one meter
drop in phreatic groundwater level now translates into 10 millimeter of
subsidence in the next five years. Also, this study showed that a
groundwater deficiency due to severe dry periods should be considered as
an accelerator of subsidence in both the short- and long-term planning.
To ensure a robust network to estimate future subsidence, we advise on a
consistent monitoring strategy of the phreatic groundwater level.%
\end{abstract}%



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