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\begin{document}

\title{Lightning over the Boreal Zone: Skill Assessment for Various
Land-Atmosphere Model Configurations and Lightning Indices}



\author[1,1]{Jonas Mortelmans}%
\author[1,1]{Michel Bechtold}%
\author[2,2]{Erwan Brisson}%
\author[3,3]{Barry Hugh Lynn}%
\author[4,4]{Sujay Kumar}%
\author[5,5]{Gabrielle J.M. De Lannoy}%
\affil[1]{KU Leuven}%
\affil[2]{Goethe University Frankfurt}%
\affil[3]{Hebrew University of Jerusalem}%
\affil[4]{NASA GSFC}%
\affil[5]{KULeuven, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 26, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Current lightning predictions are uncertain because they either rely on
empirical diagnostic relationships based on the present climate or use
coarse-scale climate scenario simulations in which deep convection is
parameterized. Previous studies demonstrated that simulations with
convection-permitting resolutions (km-scale) improve lightning
predictions compared to coarser-grid simulations using convection
parameterization for different geographical locations but not over the
boreal zone.\\
In this study, lightning simulations with the NASA Unified-Weather
Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model are evaluated over a 955x540 km2
domain including the Great Slave Lake in Canada for six lightning
seasons. The simulations are performed at convection-parameterized (9
km) and convection-permitting (3 km) resolution using the Goddard 4ICE
and the Thompson microphysics (MP) schemes. Four lightning indices are
evaluated against observations from the Canadian Lightning Detection
Network (CLDN), in terms of spatiotemporal frequency distribution,
spatial pattern, daily climatology, and an event-based overall skill
assessment. Concerning the model configuration, regardless of the
spatial resolution, the Thompson scheme is superior to the Goddard 4ICE
scheme in predicting the daily climatology but worse in predicting the
spatial patterns of lightning occurrence. Several evaluation metrics
indicate the benefit of working at a convection-permitting resolution.
The relative performance of the different lightning indices depends on
the evaluation criteria. Finally, this study demonstrates issues of the
models to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of lightning well,
which might be related to an insufficient representation of land surface
heterogeneity in the study area.%
\end{abstract}%



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