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\begin{document}

\title{Injected fluid volume controls seismicity migration in earthquake swarms
through aseismic crack propagation}



\author[1]{Philippe DANRE}%
\author[2]{Dmitry I Garagash}%
\author[3]{Louis De Barros}%
\author[4]{Frédéric Cappa}%
\author[5]{Jean-Paul Ampuero}%
\affil[1]{Géoazur}%
\affil[2]{Dalhousie University}%
\affil[3]{Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, Obervatoire de la Côte d'Azur, IRD, Géoazur}%
\affil[4]{Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur, IRD, Géoazur}%
\affil[5]{Institut de Recherche pour le Développement}%


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  \date{June 11, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The evolution of fluid injection-induced seismicity, generally
characterized through the number of events or their seismic moment,
depends on, among other factors, the injected fluid volume. Migration of
seismicity is observed during those sequences and might be caused by a
range of mechanisms: fluid pressure diffusion, fluid-induced aseismic
slip propagating along a stimulated fault, interactions between
earthquakes. Recent theoretical and observational developments underline
the important effect on seismicity migration of structural parameters,
like fault criticality, or injection parameters, like flow rate or
pressurization rate. Here, we analyze two well-studied injection-induced
seismic sequences at the Soultz-sous-F\selectlanguage{ngerman}ôret and Basel geothermal sites,
and find that the evolution of the seismicity front distance primarily
depends on the injected fluid volume. Based on a fracture mechanics
model, we develop new equations relating seismicity migration to
injected fluid volume and frictional and structural properties of the
fault. We find that the propagation of a fluid-induced aseismic slip
front along the stimulated fault, triggering seismicity, explains well
the observations made on the two sequences. This model allows us to
constrain parameters describing the seismicity front evolution and
explains the diversity of migration patterns observed in
injection-induced and natural earthquake swarms.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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