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\begin{document}

\title{The relationship between the global mean deep-sea and surface
temperature during the Early Eocene}



\author[1,1]{Barbara Goudsmit}%
\author[2,2]{Angelique Lansu}%
\author[3,3]{Michiel Baatsen}%
\author[4,4]{Anna S. von der Heydt}%
\author[5,5]{Niels Jonathan de Winter}%
\author[6,6]{Yurui Zhang}%
\author[7,7]{Ayako Abe-Ouchi}%
\author[8,8]{Agatha Margaretha De Boer}%
\author[7,7]{Wing-Le Chan}%
\author[9,9]{Yannick Donnadieu}%
\author[10,10]{David Hutchinson}%
\author[11,11]{Gregor Knorr}%
\author[12,12]{Jean-Baptiste Ladant}%
\author[13,13]{Polina A Morozova}%
\author[14,14]{Igor Niezgodzki}%
\author[15,15]{Sebastian Steinig}%
\author[16,16]{Aradhna Tripati}%
\author[17,17]{Zhongshi Zhang}%
\author[18,18]{Jiang Zhu}%
\author[3,3]{Martin Ziegler}%
\affil[1]{Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research}%
\affil[2]{Open Universiteit}%
\affil[3]{Utrecht University}%
\affil[4]{Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University}%
\affil[5]{Vrije Universiteit Brussel}%
\affil[6]{Xiamen University}%
\affil[7]{University of Tokyo}%
\affil[8]{Stockholm University}%
\affil[9]{Centre national de la recherche scientifique}%
\affil[10]{University of New South Wales}%
\affil[11]{AWI Bremerhaven}%
\affil[12]{Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement}%
\affil[13]{Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences}%
\affil[14]{ING PAN - Institute of Geological Sciences Polish Academy of Sciences}%
\affil[15]{University of Bristol}%
\affil[16]{University of California, Los Angeles}%
\affil[17]{Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research}%
\affil[18]{National Center for Atmospheric Research}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 17, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Our current understanding of global mean near-surface (land and sea) air
temperature (GMSAT) during the Cenozoic era relies on paleo-proxy
estimates of deep-sea temperature combined with assumed relationships
between global mean deep-sea temperature (GMDST), global mean
sea-surface temperature (GMSST), and GMSAT. The validity of these
assumptions is essential in our understanding of past climate states
such as the Early Eocene Climate Optimum hothouse climate (EECO, 56--48
Ma). The EECO remains relevant today, because EECO-like CO2 levels are
possible in the 22nd century under continued high CO2 emissions. We
analyze the relationship between the three global temperature indicators
for the EECO using 25 different millennia-long model simulations with
varying CO2 levels from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project
(DeepMIP). The model simulations show limited spatial variability in
deep-sea temperature, indicating that local temperature estimates can be
regarded representative of GMDST. Linear regression analysis indicates
that compared to GMSST, both GMDST and GMSAT respond more strongly to
changes in atmospheric CO2 by factors of 1.18 and 1.17, respectively.
Consequently, this model-based analysis validates the assumption that
changes in GMDST can be used to estimate changes in GMSAT during the
EECO. Paleo-proxies of GMDST, GMSST, and GMSAT during EECO show the best
fit with model simulations having an atmospheric CO2 level of 1,680 ppm,
which matches paleo-proxies of atmospheric CO2 during EECO. Similar
analyses of other past climate states are needed to examine whether
these results are robust throughout the Cenozoic, providing insight into
the long-term future warming under various shared socioeconomic
pathways.%
\end{abstract}%



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\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`goudsmit_et_al_deepmip_suppinfo.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/559269/articles/608208-the-relationship-between-the-global-mean-deep-sea-and-surface-temperature-during-the-early-eocene}

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