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Southern Ocean control of near-term global warming rates in climate models
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  • So-Jung Shin,
  • Sang-Wook Yeh,
  • Soon-Il An,
  • Noel Keenlyside,
  • Shang-Ping Xie,
  • Jae-Heung Park
So-Jung Shin
Yonsei University
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Sang-Wook Yeh
Hanyang University, ERICA
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Soon-Il An
Yonsei University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Noel Keenlyside
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
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Shang-Ping Xie
UCSD
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Jae-Heung Park
Pohang University of Science and Technology
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Abstract

Global warming will soon reach the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5C°/2°C temperature increase. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the time to reach these targets varies widely among climate models. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6, we show that a 2°C near-future global warming rate is determined by Southern Ocean (SO) state closely tied with a low-level cloud (LLC) amount feedback strength during the reference (1861-1900) period; climate models with cold SO tend to accompany more low-level cloudiness and Antarctic sea ice concentration due to a strong LLC amount feedback. Consequently, initially cold SO models tend to simulate a fast near-future warming rate by absorbing more downward shortwave radiation compared to initially warm SO models because more LLC disappears due to a strong LLC amount feedback during the 2°C rise. Our results demonstrate that climate models that correctly simulate initial SO state can improve near-future projections with reduced uncertainties.