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Global Cancer Risk from Unregulated Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons
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  • jamie kelly,
  • peter ivatt,
  • Mathew J. Evans,
  • Jesse H Kroll,
  • Amy Hrdina,
  • ishwar N kohale,
  • forest M white,
  • Bevin P Engelward,
  • Noelle Eckley Selin
jamie kelly
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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peter ivatt
Unknown
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Mathew J. Evans
University of York
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Jesse H Kroll
MIT
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Amy Hrdina
MIT
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ishwar N kohale
MIT
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forest M white
MIT
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Bevin P Engelward
MIT
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Noelle Eckley Selin
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Abstract

Scientists and regulators commonly use benzo[a]pyrene concentrations to assess cancer risk from complex mixtures of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Here, we show that benzo[a]pyrene is a poor indicator of PAH risk distribution and management: nearly 90% of cancer risk worldwide results from other PAHs, including unregulated degradation products of emitted PAHs. We develop and apply a global-scale atmospheric model and conduct health impact analyses to estimate human cancer risk from 16 PAHs and their N-PAH degradation products. We find that benzo[a]pyrene is a minor contributor to the total cancer risks of PAHs (11%); the remaining risk comes from other directly-emitted PAHs (73%) and N-PAHs (15%). We show that assessment and policy-making that relies solely on benzo[a]pyrene exposure provides misleading estimates of risk distribution, the importance of chemical processes, and the prospects for risk mitigation. We conclude that researchers and decision-makers should consider additional PAHs as well as degradation products.
Sep 2021Published in GeoHealth volume 5 issue 9. 10.1029/2021GH000401