loading page

Estimation of future changes in photovoltaic potential in Australia due to climate change
  • +2
  • Shukla Poddar,
  • Jason Peter Evans,
  • Merlinde J. Kay,
  • Abhnil Amtesh Prasad,
  • Stephen Bremner
Shukla Poddar
University of New South Wales

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Jason Peter Evans
University of New South Wales
Author Profile
Merlinde J. Kay
University of New South Wales
Author Profile
Abhnil Amtesh Prasad
The University of New South Wales
Author Profile
Stephen Bremner
University of New South Wales
Author Profile

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy is one of the most preferred and fastest growing emission-free energy sources in Australia. However, the dependency of PV generation on climatological factors can impact future power generation. Considering the future large-scale deployment of PV systems, accurate climate information is essential for PV site selection, stable grid regulation, planning and energy output projections. In this study, the effect of projected changes in shortwave downwelling radiation, temperature and wind speed on the performance of PV systems over Australia is examined using regional climate projections. Results indicate a small, but significant decline in future PV potential over Australia due to reduced insolation and increased temperature. Under a high emission scenario, the cell temperature is predicted to increase 2.5°C by 2070 leading to increased periods of significantly reduced cell efficiency (6-13 days/year) mostly in Western and central Australia.