Reanalysis of the ionospheric total electron content anomalies around
the 2011 Tohoku-Oki and 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes: Lack of a clear
precursor of large earthquakes
Abstract
We investigate the veracity of the reports by Iwata & Umeno (2016,
doi:10.1002/2016JA023036) and Iwata & Umeno (2017,
doi:10.1002/2017JA023921), both of which claimed that the observed
perturbations in GNSS-based ionospheric total electron content (TEC)
could serve as a “precursor” of large earthquakes based on correlation
analysis. Iwata & Umeno (2016) defined a spatial correlation of
residuals between the observed and predicted TEC time series. They
reported that the correlation value is significantly larger before large
earthquakes than those observed during non-earthquake periods. Iwata &
Umeno (2017), who applied the same method to other large earthquake,
claimed that the preseismic ionospheric disturbances can be
distinguished from other non-earthquake phenomena based on the small
percentage of area where the correlation value exceeds the criterion.
They also claimed that the low propagation velocity of the correlation
peaks is also a pre-seismic characteristic. Here we tested their claims
using a larger dataset. As a result, these three characteristics they
claimed to have captured as evidence of earthquake precursors are not
significant being frequently observed during normal (non-earthquake)
days. In addition to that, the criteria of Iwata & Umeno (2017) cannot
be applied to the large earthquake discussed by Iwata & Umeno (2016),
and vice versa. Therefore, we can find no basis for claiming that they
detected precursors to the earthquakes. The calculation procedure of the
correlation function shows that the value is more of an indicator that
amplifies small variations synchronized between nearby stations, like
medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances rather than earthquake
precursors.