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\begin{document}

\title{Predictability of the Barents Sea ice cover from the sea surface
temperatures in a linear framework}



\author[1]{Aleksi Nummelin}%
\author[2]{Chuncheng Guo}%
\author[3]{Patrik Bohlinger}%
\affil[1]{University of Oslo}%
\affil[2]{NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research}%
\affil[3]{The Norwegian Meteorological Institute}%


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  \date{May 26, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The Barents Sea attracts year-around human activity as the winter sea
ice cover retreats, creating a need for short and long term prediction
of environmental conditions in the region. Previous studies have shown
that local ocean heat content and heat transport at the Barents Sea
Opening provide interannual to decadal predictability of Barents Sea ice
cover. Part of this predictability is suggested to originate from
thermodynamic anomalies propagating along the Norwegian Atlantic
Current. To better understand this source of predictability, and the
relevant timescales, we use models (Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project Phase 6; CMIP6) and satellite observations, to study the linear
response of the monthly mean Barents Sea ice cover to downstream sea
surface temperature anomalies. We show that in March the sea ice
response is strongest on short lead times (\textless{}2 year), vanishing
towards \textasciitilde{}7 year timescale and that the linear sea ice
response function can be reconstructed using an advective-diffusive
`leaky-pipe' model with multiple propagation timescales. The sea surface
temperature based sea ice predictability is linked to decadal and longer
timescale variability. Our results also show that sea surface
temperatures close to the sea ice edge provide the best predictability
at short timescales, but with a skill that approaches that of the sea
surface temperatures further away at long timescales.%
\end{abstract}%



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