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\title{The Influence of Climate Change on Vibriosis in the United States:
Projected Health and Economic Impacts for the 21st Century}



\author[1]{Michael Kolian}%
\author[2]{Megan Sheahan}%
\author[1]{Caitlin Gould}%
\author[2]{James Neumann}%
\author[3]{Patrick Kinney}%
\author[4]{Sandra Hoffmann}%
\author[2]{Charles Fant}%
\author[5]{Selina Wang}%
\affil[1]{Environmental Protection Agency Washington DC}%
\affil[2]{Industrial Economics, Inc.}%
\affil[3]{Boston University}%
\affil[4]{US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service}%
\affil[5]{Tufts University}%


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  \date{May 15, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
This paper represents the first national-level (United States) estimate
of the economic impacts of vibriosis cases as exacerbated by climate
change. Vibriosis is an illness contracted through foodborne and
waterborne exposures to various Vibrio species (e.g., non-V. cholerae O1
and O139 serotypes) found in estuarine and marine environments,
including within aquatic life such as shellfish and finfish. Objectives
The objective of this study was to project climate-induced changes in
vibriosis related to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and associated
economic impacts in the U.S. Methods Our analysis constructed three
logistic regression models by Vibrio species, using vibriosis data
sourced from the Cholera and Other Vibrio Illness Surveillance (COVIS)
system and using historical SSTs. We relied on previous estimates of the
cost-per-case of vibriosis to estimate future total annual medical
costs, lost income from productivity loss, and mortality-related
indirect costs throughout the U.S. We separately report results for V.
parahaemolyticus, V. vulnificus, V. alginolyticus, and ``V. spp'' given
the different associated health burden of each. Results By 2090,
increases in SST are estimated to result in a 51 percent increase in
cases annually relative to the baseline era (1995) under Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and a 108 percent increase under RCP8.5.
The cost of these illnesses is projected to reach over \$5.2 billion
annually under RCP4.5 and \$7.3 billion annually under RCP8.5, relative
to \$2.2 billion in the baseline (2018 dollars), equivalent to 140
percent and 234 percent increases respectively. Discussion Vibriosis
incidence is likely to increase in the U.S. under moderate and
unmitigated climate change scenarios through increases in SST, resulting
in a substantial burden of morbidity and mortality, and costing millions
of dollars. These costs are mostly attributable to deaths, primarily
from exposure to V. vulnificus. Evidence suggests that other factors,
including sea surface salinity, may contribute to further increases in
vibriosis cases in some regions of the U.S. and should be investigated.%
\end{abstract}%



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