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Global Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations: Performance Quantification of Magnetopause Distances and Convection Potential Prediction
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  • Agnit Mukhopadhyay,
  • Xianzhe Jia,
  • Daniel Welling,
  • Michael Liemohn
Agnit Mukhopadhyay
University of Michigan

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Xianzhe Jia
University of Michigan
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Daniel Welling
University of Michigan,University of Texas at Arlington
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Michael Liemohn
University of Michigan
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Abstract

The performance of three global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in estimating the Earth’s magnetopause location and ionospheric cross polar cap potential (CPCP) have been presented. Using the Community Coordinated Modeling Center’s Run-on-Request system and extensive database on results of various magnetospheric scenarios simulated for a variety of solar weather patterns, the aforementioned model predictions have been compared with magnetopause standoff distance estimations obtained from six empirical models, and with cross polar cap potential estimations obtained from the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) Model and the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) observations. We have considered a range of events spanning different space weather activity to analyze the performance of these models. Using a fit performance metric analysis for each event, the models’ reproducibility of magnetopause standoff distances and CPCP against empirically-predicted observations were quantified, and salient features that govern the performance characteristics of the modeled magnetospheric and ionospheric quantities were identified. Results indicate mixed outcomes for different models during different events, with almost all models underperforming during the extreme-most events. The quantification also indicates a tendency to underpredict magnetopause distances in the absence of an inner magnetospheric model, and an inclination toward over predicting CPCP values under general conditions.