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\begin{document}

\title{Factors Driving Past Trends in Arctic Precipitation and Their Future
Changes}



\author[1]{Seiji Yukimoto}%
\author[2]{Naga Oshima}%
\author[2]{Hideaki Kawai}%
\author[2]{Makoto Deushi}%
\author[3]{Takuro Aizawa}%
\affil[1]{Meteorological  Research Institute}%
\affil[2]{Meteorological Research Institute}%
\affil[3]{National Institute of Polar Research}%


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  \date{May 17, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The Arctic is notable as a region where the greatest rate of increase in
precipitation associated with global warming is anticipated. The Arctic
precipitation simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
phase 6 multimodels showed a strong increasing trend in the recent past
since the 1980s as a result of the continued strengthening of greenhouse
gas forcing. Meanwhile, the suppression by aerosol forcing, which
dominated in earlier periods, has been leveled off. From an energetic
perspective, the constraining factors of increased atmospheric radiative
cooling and reduced heat transport from lower latitudes contributed
equally to the recent increase in Arctic precipitation. Future Arctic
precipitation will change in proportion to the temperature change, but
the fractional contributions of the constraining factors will remain
stable across various scenarios. The implications for the doubling of
the Arctic amplification factor of precipitation changes relative to
that of temperature changes are also discussed.%
\end{abstract}%



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\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`980263_0_art_file_11618764_s4v2yh.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/533526/articles/690152-factors-driving-past-trends-in-arctic-precipitation-and-their-future-changes}

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