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\begin{document}

\title{Seasonal predictability of summer melt ponds from winter sea ice surface
temperature}



\author[1]{Linda Thielke}%
\author[2]{Niels Fuchs}%
\author[3]{Gunnar Spreen}%
\author[4]{Bruno Tremblay}%
\author[5]{Gerit Birnbaum}%
\author[1]{Marcus Huntemann}%
\author[6]{Nils Hutter}%
\author[7]{Polona Itkin}%
\author[8]{Arttu Jutila}%
\author[9]{Melinda Anne Webster}%
\affil[1]{Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen}%
\affil[2]{Center for Earth System Sustainability}%
\affil[3]{University of Bremen}%
\affil[4]{McGill University}%
\affil[5]{Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research}%
\affil[6]{Cooperative Institute for Climate}%
\affil[7]{UiT The Arctic University of Norway}%
\affil[8]{Alfred Wegener Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung}%
\affil[9]{University of Alaska Fairbanks/Geophysical Institute}%


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  \date{May 26, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Comparing helicopter-borne surface temperature maps in winter and
optical orthomosaics in summer from the year-long Multidisciplinary
drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC)
expedition, we find a strong geometric correlation between warm
anomalies in winter and melt pond location the following summer. Warm
anomalies are attributed to thinner snow and ice on level ice compared
to the deformed ice in the surroundings or refrozen leads with only
newly formed, thin ice. Warm surface temperature anomalies in January
were 0.3 K to 2.5 K warmer on sea ice that later formed melt ponds. A
one-dimensional steady-state thermodynamic model shows that the observed
surface temperature differences are in line with the observed ice
thickness and snow depth. We demonstrate the potential of seasonal
prediction of summer melt pond location and coverage from winter surface
temperature observations. A threshold-based classification achieves a
correct classification for 41\% of the melt ponds.%
\end{abstract}%



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