Saltwater disposal (SWDs) has been linked to the recent increase of earthquakes in various regions of the United States. In some cases, the strong temporal and spatial associations have provided unequivocal evidences to the scientific community that wastewater injection is one of the dominant causal factors to the onset seismicity. In addition, numerous physical models have suggested that the increase in pore pressure from wastewater injection is capable to induce fault slips, providing further physical evidences. Another growing body of literature sorts to rigorously prove causality with statistical analysis where they propose statistical frameworks with parametric regression models to evaluate whether the observed earthquakes were occurring more often than by random chances and tested the statistical significance of the observed occurrences of earthquake to arrive at causal interpretations. We propose causal inference frameworks with the potential outcomes perspective to explicitly define what we meant by causal effect with mathematical formulations and declare necessary assumptions to ensure consistency between models for model comparison. In particular, we put considerations on two common difficulties in raster-based spatial statistical analysis, the spatial correlation, which can be described by Tobler’s first law of geography where near things are more related than distant things, and interference, a causal inference term, where treatments applied to some spatially indexed units affect the outcomes at other spatially indexed units, mostly due to complex physical processes. The study region, the Fort-Worth Basin of North Central Texas, is discretized into non-overlapping grid blocks. The first proposed workflow adopts a cross-sectional study design on aggregated earthquake catalog and injection data where two statistical methods are employed to test the significance of the causal effect between the presence or absence of saltwater disposals and the number of the earthquakes and to estimate the magnitude of the average causal effect. The second proposed workflow incorporates the temporal domain which holds more scientific interests. Finally, the analysis is repeated for different grid configurations to directly assess the sensitivity of statistical results.

The Permian Basin has become the United States’ largest producer of oil over the past decade. Along with the rise in production, there has been an increase in the rate of low magnitude earthquakes, some of which have been associated with hydrocarbon extraction and wastewater injection. A detailed knowledge of changes to the subsurface can aid in understanding the causes of seismicity, and these changes can be inferred from InSAR surface deformation measurements. In this study, we show that both cm-level cumulative deformation, as well as mm-level coseismic deformation signals, are detectable in West Texas. In a region west of Mentone, TX, we reconstructed the subtle coseismic deformation signal on the order of ~5 mm associated with the recent M4.9 earthquake. Over ~100,000 km2 of the Permian Basin, we created annual cumulative LOS deformation maps, decomposing into vertical and eastward components where overlapping data are available. These maps contain numerous subsidence and uplift features near active production and disposal wells. The most important deformation signatures are linear streaks that extend tens of kilometers near Pecos, TX, where a cluster of increased seismic events was cataloged by TexNet. As validated by independent GPS data, our InSAR processing strategy achieved millimeter-level accuracy. A careful treatment of the InSAR tropospheric noise, which can be as large as 15 cm in West Texas, is required to detect surface deformation signals with such low signal-to-noise ratio. We developed an outlier removal technique based on robust statistics to detect the presence of strong, non-Gaussian noise. We compared the surface deformation solutions of multiple InSAR time series methods, and all of them produced more accurate and consistent deformation trends after removing outlier InSAR measurements. We are exploring a Bayesian generalization of SBAS velocity estimation by including probabilistic data rejection to determine which pixels should be excluded from the model fitting. This technique provides a full posterior distribution of the model parameters along with the best-fit surface velocity.

Saltwater disposal has been identified as the dominant causal factor that contribute to induced seismicity. Physical models rely on mechanistic understanding to infer causality where they evaluate various conditions for fault slips albeit with a high degree of uncertainty due to sparse data and subsurface heterogeneity. Given these uncertainties, statistical analysis is designed to measure statistical associations in the observed data with parametric regression models and interpret the significance of specific coefficient as evidence of causation. However, it is often difficult to interrogate the coefficients between different statistical models as the coefficients hold different implications. We propose a causal inference framework with the potential outcomes perspective to explicitly define what we meant by causal effect and declare necessary assumptions to ensure consistency between models for model comparison. The proposed workflow is applied to the Fort-Worth Basin of North Central Texas with the area of interest is discretized into non-overlapping grid blocks. Two statistical methods are employed to test the significance of the causal effect between the presence or absence of saltwater disposals and the number of the earthquakes and to estimate the magnitude of the average causal effect. In addition, our analysis is repeated for different grid configurations to directly assess the sensitivity of statistical results. We have identified a stable and statistically significant causal relationship between the presence of saltwater disposals and the number of earthquakes and have estimated there are, on average, 13 more earthquakes occurring in grids with saltwater disposals.