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\begin{document}

\title{Large ensemble simulation for investigating predictability of precursor
vortices of Typhoon Faxai in 2019 with a 14-km mesh global
nonhydrostatic atmospheric model}



\author[1]{Yohei Yamada}%
\author[2]{Tomoki Miyakawa}%
\author[1]{Masuo Nakano}%
\author[1]{Chihiro Kodama}%
\author[3]{Akiyoshi Wada}%
\author[1]{Tomoe Nasuno}%
\author[2]{Ying-Wen Chen}%
\author[1]{Akira Yamazaki}%
\author[4]{Hisashi Yashiro}%
\author[2]{Masaki Satoh}%
\affil[1]{Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science Technology}%
\affil[2]{Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo}%
\affil[3]{Meteorological Research Institutes}%
\affil[4]{National Institute for Environmental Studies}%


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  \date{May 18, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Typhoon Faxai hit Japan in 2019 and severely damaged the Tokyo
metropolitan area. To mitigate such damages, a good track forecast is
necessary even before the typhoon formation. To investigate the
predictability of the genesis and movement of a precursor vortex and its
relationship with the synoptic-scale flow, 1600-member ensemble
simulations of Typhoon Faxai were performed using a 14-km mesh global
nonhydrostatic atmospheric model, which started from 16 different
initial days (i.e., 1600 members in total). The results show that the
model could predict an enhanced risk of a Faxai-like vortex heading
toward Japan two weeks before landfall, which was up to 70\%. The reason
for the enhancement was a rapid increase in the members reproducing a
precursor vortex from 15 to 12 days before landfall in Japan. In
addition, the upper-tropospheric trough played an essential role in the
track simulation of Faxai.%
\end{abstract}%



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