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Global projections of storm surges using high-resolution CMIP6 climate models: validation, projected changes, and methodological challenges
  • +13
  • Sanne Muis,
  • Jeroen Aerts,
  • José A. Álvarez Antolínez,
  • Job Dullaart,
  • Trang Minh Duong,
  • Li Erikson,
  • Rein Haarmsa,
  • Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea,
  • Matthias Mengel,
  • Dewi Le Bars,
  • Andrea O'Neill,
  • Roshanka Ranasinghe,
  • Malcolm Roberts,
  • Martin Verlaan,
  • Philip J. Ward,
  • Kun Yan
Sanne Muis
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Jeroen Aerts
Vrije Universiteit
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José A. Álvarez Antolínez
Delft University of Technology
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Job Dullaart
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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Trang Minh Duong
IHE Delft
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Li Erikson
U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
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Rein Haarmsa
KNMI
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Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea
Mercator Ocean
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Matthias Mengel
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Dewi Le Bars
KNMI
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Andrea O'Neill
United States Geological Survey
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Roshanka Ranasinghe
IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
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Malcolm Roberts
UK Met Office
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Martin Verlaan
Delft University of Technology
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Philip J. Ward
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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Kun Yan
Deltares
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Abstract

In the coming decades, the frequency of coastal flooding will increase due to sea-level rise and changes in climate extremes. We force the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) with a climate model ensemble from the CMIP6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) to produce global projections of extreme sea levels (defined as tides and storm surge) from 1950 to 2050. This is the first time that an ensemble of global ~25km resolution climate models is used for this purpose, which increases the credibility of projected storm surges. Here we validate the historical simulations (1985-2014) against the ERA5 climate reanalysis. The overall performance of the HighResMIP ensemble is good with mean bias smaller than 0.1 m. However, there is a strong large-scale spatial bias. Future projections for the high emission SSP5-8.5 scenario indicate changes up to 0.1 m or 20% in 10-year return period surge level from 1951-1980 to 2021-2050. Increases are seen in parts of the coastline of the Caribbean, Madagascar and Mozambique, Alaska, and northern Australia, whereas the Mediterranean region may see a decrease. The full dataset underlying this analysis, including timeseries and statistics, is openly available on the Climate Data Store and can be used to inform broad-scale assessment of coastal impacts under future climate change.