Estimating the Burden of Heat-related illness morbidity Attributable to Anthropogenic Climate Change in North Carolina
Jagadeesh Puvvula1, Azar M. Abadi1, Kathryn C. Conlon2, Jared J. Rennie3, Stephanie C. Herring4, Lauren Thie5, Max J. Rudolph6, Rebecca Owen7, Jesse E. Bell1,8,9
1Department of Environmental, Agricultural and Occupational Health, College of Public Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE, 68198 USA
2Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California Davis, One Shields Ave, Davis CA, 95616 USA
3 NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC, 28801 USA
4NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Boulder, CO USA
5Division of Public Health, Occupational & Environmental Epidemiology, North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, Raleigh, NC, 27699 USA
6Heider College of Business, Creighton University, Omaha, NE, 68102 USA
7HealthCare Analytical Solutions, INC., Bend, OR, 97701 USA
8School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, 68583 USA
9Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, 68588 USA
Corresponding author: Jagadeesh Puvvula (jagadeesh.puvvula@unmc.edu) and Jesse Bell (jesse.bell@unmc.edu)
Key Points:
Abstract
Climate change is known to increase the frequency and intensity of hot days (daily maximum temperature ≥ 30°C), both globally and locally. Exposure to extreme heat is associated with numerous adverse human health outcomes. This study estimated the burden of heat-related illness (HRI) attributable to anthropogenic climate change in North Carolina physiographic divisions (Coastal and Piedmont) during the summer months from 2011-2016. Additionally, assuming intermediate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, future HRI morbidity burden attributable to climate change was estimated. The association between daily maximum temperature and the rate of HRI was evaluated using the Generalized Additive Model. The rate of HRI assuming natural simulations (i.e., absence of greenhouse gas emissions) and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios were predicted to estimate the HRI attributable to climate change. During 2011-2016, we observed a significant decrease in the rate of HRI assuming natural simulations compared to the observed. About 15% of HRI is attributable to anthropogenic climate change in Coastal (13.40% (IQR: -34.90,95.52)) and Piedmont (16.39% (IQR: -35.18,148.26)) regions. During the future periods, the median rate of HRI was significantly higher (78.65%:Coastal and 65.85%:Piedmont), assuming a higher emission scenario than the intermediate emission scenario. We observed significant associations between anthropogenic climate change and adverse human health outcomes. Our findings indicate the need for evidence-based public health interventions to protect human health from climate-related exposures, like extreme heat, while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions.