Estimating the Burden of Heat-related illness morbidity
Attributable to Anthropogenic Climate Change in North Carolina
Jagadeesh Puvvula1, Azar M. Abadi1,
Kathryn C. Conlon2, Jared J.
Rennie3, Stephanie C. Herring4,
Lauren Thie5, Max J. Rudolph6,
Rebecca Owen7, Jesse E. Bell1,8,9
1Department of Environmental, Agricultural and
Occupational Health, College of Public Health, University of Nebraska
Medical Center, Omaha, NE, 68198 USA
2Department of Public Health Sciences, University of
California Davis, One Shields Ave, Davis CA, 95616 USA
3 NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information,
Asheville, NC, 28801 USA
4NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information,
Boulder, CO USA
5Division of Public Health, Occupational &
Environmental Epidemiology, North Carolina Department of Health and
Human Services, Raleigh, NC, 27699 USA
6Heider College of Business, Creighton University,
Omaha, NE, 68102 USA
7HealthCare Analytical Solutions, INC., Bend, OR,
97701 USA
8School of Natural Resources, University of
Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, 68583 USA
9Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute, University
of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, 68588 USA
Corresponding author: Jagadeesh Puvvula
(jagadeesh.puvvula@unmc.edu)
and Jesse Bell
(jesse.bell@unmc.edu)
Key Points:
- Quantified the association between daily maximum temperature and
heat-related illness (HRI) emergency room visits.
- During 2011-2016, 15% of the HRI emergency room visits in North
Carolina were attributable to anthropogenic climate change.
- HRI emergencies are projected to increase by 32% during 2036-2065 and
79% during 2070-2099, assuming RCP8.5 emissions compared to RCP4.5.
Abstract
Climate change is known to increase the frequency and intensity of hot
days (daily maximum temperature ≥ 30°C), both globally and locally.
Exposure to extreme heat is associated with numerous adverse human
health outcomes. This study estimated the burden of heat-related illness
(HRI) attributable to anthropogenic climate change in North Carolina
physiographic divisions (Coastal and Piedmont) during the summer months
from 2011-2016. Additionally, assuming intermediate and high greenhouse
gas emission scenarios, future HRI morbidity burden attributable to
climate change was estimated. The association between daily maximum
temperature and the rate of HRI was evaluated using the Generalized
Additive Model. The rate of HRI assuming natural simulations (i.e.,
absence of greenhouse gas emissions) and future greenhouse gas emission
scenarios were predicted to estimate the HRI attributable to climate
change. During 2011-2016, we observed a significant decrease in the rate
of HRI assuming natural simulations compared to the observed. About 15%
of HRI is attributable to anthropogenic climate change in Coastal
(13.40% (IQR: -34.90,95.52)) and Piedmont (16.39% (IQR:
-35.18,148.26)) regions. During the future periods, the median rate of
HRI was significantly higher (78.65%:Coastal and 65.85%:Piedmont),
assuming a higher emission scenario than the intermediate emission
scenario. We observed significant associations between anthropogenic
climate change and adverse human health outcomes. Our findings indicate
the need for evidence-based public health interventions to protect human
health from climate-related exposures, like extreme heat, while
minimizing greenhouse gas emissions.