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A subseasonal Earth system prediction framework with CESM2
  • +12
  • Jadwiga H. Richter,
  • Anne A. Glanville,
  • James Edwards,
  • Brian Kauffman,
  • Nicholas Alexander Davis,
  • Abigail Jaye,
  • Hyemi Kim,
  • Nicholas Michael Pedatella,
  • Lantao Sun,
  • Judith Berner,
  • Who M Kim,
  • Stephen Gerald Yeager,
  • Gokhan Danabasoglu,
  • Julie M. Caron,
  • Keith W Oleson
Jadwiga H. Richter
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Anne A. Glanville
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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James Edwards
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Brian Kauffman
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Nicholas Alexander Davis
National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Abigail Jaye
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Hyemi Kim
Stony Brook University
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Nicholas Michael Pedatella
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Lantao Sun
Colorado State University
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Judith Berner
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Who M Kim
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Stephen Gerald Yeager
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Gokhan Danabasoglu
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
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Julie M. Caron
National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
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Keith W Oleson
NCAR, USA
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Abstract

A framework to enable Earth system predictability research on the subseasonal timescale is developed with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2) using two model configurations that differ in their atmospheric components. One configuration uses the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6) with its top near 40 km, referred to as CESM2(CAM6). The other employs the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 (WACCM6) whose top extends to ~ 140 km in the vertical and it includes fully interactive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry (CESM2(WACCM6)). Both configurations were used to carry out subseasonal reforecasts for the time period 1999 to 2020 following the Subseasonal Experiment’s (SubX) protocol. CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) show very similar subseasonal prediction skill of 2-meter temperature, precipitation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to the Community Earth System Model, version 1 with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CESM1(CAM5)) and to operational models. CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) reforecast sets provide a comprehensive dataset for predictability research of multiple Earth system components, including three-dimensional output for many variables, and output specific to the mesosphere and lower-thermosphere (MLT) region. We show that MLT variability can be predicted ~ 10 days in advance of sudden stratospheric warming events. Weekly real-time forecasts with CESM2(WACCM6) contribute to the multi-model mean ensemble forecast used to issue the NOAA weeks 3-4 outlooks. As a freely available community model, both CESM2 configurations can be used to carry out additional experiments to elucidate sources of subseasonal predictability.