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\begin{document}

\title{Teleconnected tide gauges record the 20th century enhancement of decadal
climate variability}



\author[1]{Christopher Little}%
\affil[1]{Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 19, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Changes in the amplitude of decadal climate variability over the 20th
century have been noted, with most evidence derived from tropical
Pacific sea surface temperature records. However, the length, spatial
coverage, and stability of most instrumental records are insufficient to
robustly identify such non-stationarity, or resolve its global spatial
structure. Here, I find that the long-term, stable, observing platform
provided by tide gauges reveals a dramatic increase in the amplitude and
spatial coherence of decadal (11-14 year period) coastal sea level (?)
variability between 1960 and 2000. During this epoch, western North
American ? was approximately out of phase with ? in Sydney, Australia,
and led northeastern United States ? by approximately 1-2 years. The
amplitude and timing of changes in decadal ? variability are consistent
with changes in the spatial structure of atmospheric variability. In
particular, central equatorial Pacific wind stress (? ? ?) and Labrador
sea heat flux (? ??) are highly coherent with ? and exhibit
contemporaneous, order-of-magnitude increases in decadal power. These
statistical relationships have a mechanistic underpinning: along the
western North American coastline, ? ? ? variability is known to drive
rapidly propagating ? signals along equatorial and coastal waveguides;
while a 1-2 year lag between ? ?? and northeastern United States ? , is
consistent with a remotely-forced, buoyancy-driven, mechanism. Tide
gauges thus provide strong independent support for an increase in
inter-basin coherence on decadal timescales over the second half of the
20th century, with implications for both the interpretation and
prediction of climate and sea level variability. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT:
Decadal climate variability influences the frequency and severity of
many natural hazards (e.g., drought), with considerable human and
ecological impacts. Understanding observed changes and predicting future
impacts relies upon an understanding of the physical processes and any
changes in their variability and relationship over time. However,
identifying such changes requires very long observational records. This
paper leverages a large set of tide gauge records to show that global
decadal-timescale coastal sea level variability increased dramatically
in the second half of the 20th century in many locations. The increase
was driven by a shift in the amplitude, spatial pattern, and inter-basin
coherence, of atmospheric pressure, wind, and sea surface temperature
variability.%
\end{abstract}%



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