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\begin{document}

\title{Terrestrial Evaporation and Moisture Drainage in a Warmer Climate}



\author[1]{Daniel J. Short Gianotti}%
\author[1]{Ruzbeh Akbar}%
\author[1]{Andrew F. Feldman}%
\author[2]{Guido D. Salvucci}%
\author[3]{Dara Enthekabi}%
\affil[1]{Massachusetts Institute of Technology}%
\affil[2]{Boston University}%
\affil[3]{Bacardi and Stockholm Water Foundations Professor  Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 24, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
To determine hydrologic changes in a warmer climate, we impose
precipitation and potential evaporation perturbations on hydrologic
response functions constructed from precipitation and satellite soil
moisture observations across the United States. Despite nonlinearities
in the evaporation (E) and drainage (D) responses and opposing-sign
perturbations, changes in individual fluxes are superposable. Empirical
frameworks (Budyko) can misrepresent changes in E/D partitioning by
neglecting shifts/trends in hydrologic regime and subseasonal
precipitation dynamics. E/D both increase to balance mean precipitation
(P) increases, and increased E reduces soil moisture. E and D are
generally more elastic to changes in P than E. The results suggest that
(1) the impacts of regional hydrologic perturbations may allow for
simple superposition/scaling, (2) changes in timing/intensity of
precipitation may have substantial impacts on mean moisture states and
fluxes, and (3) changes to the distribution of surface moisture states
are likely more relevant for E/D partitioning than common aridity
indices.%
\end{abstract}%



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