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Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990-2020
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  • Philip Klotzbach,
  • Kimberly M. Wood,
  • Carl Schreck,
  • Steven G. Bowen,
  • Christina M Patricola,
  • Michael Bell
Philip Klotzbach
Colorado State University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Kimberly M. Wood
Mississippi State University
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Carl Schreck
North Carolina State University
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Steven G. Bowen
Aon
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Christina M Patricola
Iowa State University
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Michael Bell
Colorado State University
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Abstract

This study investigates trends in global tropical cyclone (TC) activity from 1990–2020, a period where observational platforms are mostly consistent. Several global TC metrics have decreased during this period, with significant decreases in hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Most of this decrease has been driven by significant downward trends in the western North Pacific. Globally, short-lived named storms, 24-hr intensification periods of >=50 kt day-1 and TC-related damage have increased significantly. The increase in short-lived named storms is likely due to technological improvements, while rapidly intensifying TC increases may be fueled by higher potential intensity. Damage increases are largely due to increased coastal assets. The decreasing trends in hurricane numbers and global ACE are likely due to the trend towards a more La Niña-like base state from 1990–2020, favoring TC activity in the North Atlantic and suppressing TC activity in the eastern and western North Pacific.