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\begin{document}

\title{Analysis of future heatwaves in the Pearl River Delta through CMIP6-WRF
dynamical downscaling}



\author[1]{Ziping Zuo}%
\author[2]{Jimmy Chi-Hung Fung}%
\author[1]{Zhenning Li}%
\author[3]{Yiyi Huang}%
\author[1]{Mau Fung Wong}%
\author[2]{Alexis Kai-Hon Lau}%
\affil[1]{Division of Environment and Sustainability, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology}%
\affil[2]{Hong Kong University of Science and Technology}%
\affil[3]{University of Arizona}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 08, 2024}


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\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{abstract}
Recent worldwide heatwaves have shattered temperature records in many
regions. In this study, we applied a dynamical downscaling method on the
high-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model
(MPI-ESM-1-2-HR) to obtain projections of the summer thermal
environments and heatwaves in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) considering
three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5)
in the middle and late 21st century. Results indicated that relative to
the temperatures in the 2010s, the mean increases in the summer daytime
and nighttime temperatures in the 2040s will be 0.7--0.8 \selectlanguage{ngerman}°C and 0.9--1.1
°C, respectively. In the 2090s, they will be 0.5--3.1 °C and 0.7--3.4
°C, respectively. SSP1-2.6 is the only scenario in which the
temperatures in the 2090s are expected to be lower than those in the
2040s. Compared with those in the 2010s, hot extremes are expected to be
more frequent, more intense, more extensive, and longer-lasting in the
future in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. In the 2010s, a heatwave
occurred in the PRD lasted for 6 days on average, with a mean daily
maximum temperature of 34.4 °C. In the 2040s, the heatwave duration and
intensity are expected to increase by 2--3 days and 0.2--0.4 °C in all
three scenarios. In the 2090s, the increase in these values will be 23
days and 36.0 °C in SSP5-8.5. Moreover, a 10-year extreme high
temperature in the 2010s is expected to occur at a monthly frequency
from June to September.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



\sloppy


\textbf{Table S1}

\emph{Evaluation of bias correction performance}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{longtable}[]{@{}llll@{}}
\toprule
Calculation metrics & ERA5-driven dataset & CMIP6-driven dataset &
Corrected CMIP6-driven dataset\tabularnewline
\midrule
\endhead
MB & 0.43 & 0.75 & 0.43\tabularnewline
MAE & 0.61 & 0.56 & 0.61\tabularnewline
RMSE & 0.74 & 0.89 & 0.74\tabularnewline
IOA & 0.78 & 0.73 & 0.78\tabularnewline
\bottomrule
\end{longtable}\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/image1/image1}

\end{center}
\end{figure}

\par\null

\textbf{Figure S1} Spatial map of the mean correction value from 2011 to
2020\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/image2/image2}

\end{center}
\end{figure}

\textbf{Figure S2} Spatial distribution of 118 observation stations\selectlanguage{english}
\begin{figure}[H]
\begin{center}
\includegraphics[width=0.70\columnwidth]{figures/image3/image3}

\end{center}
\end{figure}

\textbf{Figure S3} (a), (b), (c) Spatial plot of the hourly mean 2 m
temperature from 2011 to 2020 for the ERA5-driven simulations, and
CMIP6-driven simulations before and after bias correction, overlaid with
the observed hourly mean 2 m temperature at each station. (d), (e), (f)
Difference associated with each observation station in the two datasets.

\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`essoar.10512655.1.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/521291/articles/594276-analysis-of-future-heatwaves-in-the-pearl-river-delta-through-cmip6-wrf-dynamical-downscaling}

\selectlanguage{english}
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\end{document}

