Prediction of potential distribution area of two parapatric distribution
species in Triosteum under climate change
Climate change has a profoundly impact on global biodiversity and
species geographical distribution, especially in alpine regions.
Predicting the effects of climate change on the species’ habitat could
help to understand how do these species respond to the potential climate
threats. Triosteum is a typical mountain plant with medicinal and
ecological value. There are three species of this genus in East Asia.
Triosteum Pinnatifidum and Triosteum himalayanum are mainly distributed
in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its surrounding areas, and they are
sensitive to climate changes. Therefore, these species of Triosteum are
excellent material for studying the response of herbaceous plants to
climate change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and adjacent mountains. In this
study, a MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution of
T. Pinnatifidum and T. himalayanum in present time and at four different
time periods in future under two different Shared Socio-economic
Pathways (SSPs). In the present study, accuracy of the model’s
prediction was verified, and the results indicate that temperature is
the key factor that affects the distribution of these two species.
Compared with the current distribution, the potential suitable area of
T. Pinnatifidum will increase in the future under the two types of SSPs,
but the potential suitable area of T. himalayanum will decrease
significantly. In addition, the overlap of the potential suitable areas
of these two species will also expand, potentially affecting their
hybridization and interspecific competition. The centroids of T.
Pinnatifidum will migrate to east, but the trajectory of centroids of T.
himalayanum is complex. This study could infer the influence mechanism
between herbaceous plants and climate, which could provide basic data
for resource utilization and biogeography research of Triosteum. It also
provides a useful tool for developing adaptive management strategies of
conservation and sustainable use of mountain herbaceous plants under