Assessment of progress
Largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic, finalizing the Post-2020 GBF has taken two years longer than originally anticipated. Nonetheless, delays did give countries extended time to meet, debate, and improve the GBF. These delays however, further demand clear and ambitious GBF target wording with relevant indicators to catalyze immediate and aligned action for genetic diversity.
The January 2020 GBF “zero draft” Goal A only vaguely referenced genetic diversity Goal (Table 1). It seemed to suggest that many species could continue to lose genetic diversity (“on average”), and even by 2050, up to 10% of species were accepted to be losing genetic diversity. The August 2020 “updated zero draft” reverted to a wording of simply “maintaining” genetic diversity, yet neither draft had a Target for genetic diversity. Overall, the state of the GBF in late 2020 risked serious regression around genetic conservation compared to the 2000 and 2011 commitments.
The first draft of the Post-2020 GBF (July 2021) showed the first quantitative Goal on maintaining genetic diversity (though only “90%” of an undefined baseline) possibly influenced by Díaz et al (Díaz et al. 2020). To non geneticists, 90% may sound rather good, but Frankham (2022) demonstrated this will lead to catastrophic increases in inbreeding, and “a 54% loss of total fitness in naturally outbreeding vertebrate populations and 30% loss in outbreeding plants,” sending many species into an irreversible ‘extinction vortex’ (Blomqvist et al. 2010). Additionally, the wording itself remains confusing (“increase in the proportion of species that have at least 90 per cent of their genetic diversity maintained”). On the other hand, genetic diversity appeared for the first time in the Targets - an important advancement recognizing (a) that genetic diversity conservation requires action and that (b) already populations of imperiled species are experiencing genetic threats (inbreeding, lack of connection to other populations, etc).
The document released by the Open Ended Working Group of the Post-2020 GBF in March 2022 (OEWG 3) did not officially update the GBF draft but did contain suggestions from Parties to the CBD, with many suggestions in brackets for later negotiations. Major improvements occurred, including several suggested previously (Hoban et al. 2020, 2021a; Laikre et al. 2021)- the culmination of extensive outreach effort (see lessons learned). The percentage of genetic diversity to maintain was increased to 95%, the text was modified to emphasize genetic diversity ‘among and within populations,’ and recognized ‘adaptive potential’. The maintenance of genetically distinct populations was also mentioned. Lastly, Target 4 added more specificity, highlighting ‘restoration of genetically depleted populations’ and various wording such as ‘all species’, ‘ex situ and in situ conservation,’ ‘species populations’, etc. Although other documents were released later in 2022 (see Table 1), no substantial changes occurred after OEWG3.