Assessment of progress
Largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic, finalizing the Post-2020 GBF has
taken two years longer than originally anticipated. Nonetheless, delays
did give countries extended time to meet, debate, and improve the GBF.
These delays however, further demand clear and ambitious GBF target
wording with relevant indicators to catalyze immediate and aligned
action for genetic diversity.
The January 2020 GBF “zero draft” Goal A only vaguely referenced
genetic diversity Goal (Table 1). It seemed to suggest that many species
could continue to lose genetic diversity (“on average”), and even by
2050, up to 10% of species were accepted to be losing genetic
diversity. The August 2020 “updated zero draft” reverted to a wording
of simply “maintaining” genetic diversity, yet neither draft had a
Target for genetic diversity. Overall, the state of the GBF in late 2020
risked serious regression around genetic conservation compared to the
2000 and 2011 commitments.
The first draft of the Post-2020 GBF (July 2021) showed the first
quantitative Goal on maintaining genetic diversity (though only “90%”
of an undefined baseline) possibly influenced by Díaz et al
(Díaz et al. 2020). To non
geneticists, 90% may sound rather good, but Frankham (2022)
demonstrated this will lead to catastrophic increases in inbreeding, and
“a 54% loss of total fitness in naturally outbreeding vertebrate
populations and 30% loss in outbreeding plants,” sending many species
into an irreversible ‘extinction vortex’
(Blomqvist et al. 2010).
Additionally, the wording itself remains confusing (“increase in the
proportion of species that have at least 90 per cent of their genetic
diversity maintained”). On the other hand, genetic diversity appeared
for the first time in the Targets - an important advancement recognizing
(a) that genetic diversity conservation requires action and that (b)
already populations of imperiled species are experiencing genetic
threats (inbreeding, lack of connection to other populations, etc).
The document released by the Open Ended Working Group of the Post-2020
GBF in March 2022 (OEWG 3) did not officially update the GBF draft but
did contain suggestions from Parties to the CBD, with many suggestions
in brackets for later negotiations. Major improvements occurred,
including several suggested previously
(Hoban et al. 2020,
2021a; Laikre et al. 2021)- the culmination of extensive outreach
effort (see lessons learned). The percentage of genetic diversity to
maintain was increased to 95%, the text was modified to emphasize
genetic diversity ‘among and within populations,’ and recognized
‘adaptive potential’. The maintenance of genetically distinct
populations was also mentioned. Lastly, Target 4 added more specificity,
highlighting ‘restoration of genetically depleted populations’ and
various wording such as ‘all species’, ‘ex situ and in situ
conservation,’ ‘species populations’, etc. Although other documents were
released later in 2022 (see Table 1), no substantial changes occurred
after OEWG3.