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\begin{document}

\title{Legacy phosphorus and ecosystem memory control future water quality in a
eutrophic lake}



\author[1]{Paul C. Hanson}%
\author[2]{Robert Ladwig}%
\author[2]{Cal Buelo}%
\author[1]{Ellen A Albright}%
\author[2]{Austin D Delany}%
\author[3]{Cayelan Carey}%
\affil[1]{University of Wisconsin-Madison}%
\affil[2]{University of Wisconsin}%
\affil[3]{Virginia Tech}%


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  \date{May 25, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Lake water clarity, phytoplankton biomass, and hypolimnetic oxygen
concentration are metrics of water quality that are highly degraded in
eutrophic systems. Eutrophication is linked to legacy nutrients stored
in catchment soils and in lake sediments. Long lags in water quality
improvement under scenarios of nutrient load reduction to lakes indicate
an apparent ecosystem memory tied to the interactions between water
biogeochemistry and lake sediment nutrients. To investigate how nutrient
legacies and ecosystem memory control lake water quality dynamics, we
coupled nutrient cycling and lake metabolism in a model to recreate
long-term water quality of a eutrophic lake (Lake Mendota, Wisconsin,
USA). We modeled long-term recovery of water quality under scenarios of
nutrient load reduction and found that the rates and patterns of water
quality improvement depended on changes in phosphorus (P) and organic
carbon storage in the water column and sediments. Through scenarios of
water quality improvement, we showed that water quality variables have
distinct phases of change determined by the turnover rates of storage
pools -- an initial and rapid water quality improvement due to water
column flushing, followed by a much longer and slower improvement as
sediment P pools were slowly reduced. Water clarity, phytoplankton
biomass, and hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen differed in their time
responses. Water clarity and algal biomass improved within years of
nutrient reductions, but hypolimnetic oxygen took decades to improve.
Even with reduced catchment loading, recovery of Lake Mendota to a
mesotrophic state may require decades due to nutrient legacies and long
ecosystem memory.%
\end{abstract}%



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\textbf{Hosted file}

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