Abstract
Climate warming alters the seasonal timing of biological events. This
raises concerns that species-specific responses to warming may
de-synchronize co-evolved consumer-resource phenologies, resulting in
trophic mismatch and altered ecosystem dynamics. Here we explore effects
of warming on the temporal coherence of two key phenological events in
lakes across Europe: The onset of the phytoplankton spring bloom and the
spring/summer maximum of the grazer Daphnia . Simulation of
1,891,744 lake years revealed that, under the current climate, the
phenological delay between the two events varies greatly (20-190 days)
across lake types and geographic locations. Warming moves both
phenological events forward in time and can predictably lengthen or
shorten the delay between them by up to 60 days. Our findings expose
large extant variation in phenological synchrony of planktonic
organisms, provide quantitative predictions of its dependence on
physical lake properties and geographic location, and highlight research
needs concerning its ecological consequences.