authorea.com/54939

Cognitive Limitations of Human Bayesian Learning

To do list:

(Johannes) Explanation rational Bayesian convergence being equal \(\sqrt{t} = t^{1/2}\)

This follows from the Central Limit Theorem and from the fact that a rationally updated dirichlet conjugate prior acts as a counts model. For details see the following Wikipedia articles: Central Limit Theorem and Dirichlet Distribution.(Thomas) Explain the Hawkes Poisson Process as a

**candidate**model in this context of bounded rationality(Thomas) Check dynamics as a function of 2 minutes sessions \(\rightarrow\) Is there any coherent pattern between spikes and 2 minutes periods

(Johannes) Compute matrices of distances between models as a function of time: The output should be triangular matrices

(Johannes) Learning models in Economics

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