FIGURE 6 Alterations to possible geographical distributions ofSatyrium ciliatum, Satyrium nepalense, and Satyrium
yunnanense in climate change scenarios
In regard to future changes in suitable habitat areas, both the gained
and lost areas of Satyrium will increase in emission
concentrations; however, the gained area will be larger than the lost
area (Figure 6). According to SSP5 - 8.5, the number of increased and
decreased areas were the highest compared with the current simulation
results. For S. ciliatum , by the 2050s, the area of total
suitable habitat would increase to
9.65 × 104km2 (SSP1 - 2.6) and 12.63 × 104km2 (SSP5 - 8.5), and the gained territory would be in
Southern Tibet and Northwest Sichuan. By the 2070s, the areas would
increase to 9.56 × 104 km2 (SSP1 -
2.6) and 26.33 × 104 km2 (SSP5 -
8.5), and the new territory would be in Southern Tibet, Northwest
Sichuan, and Northern Yunnan. The decreased habitat would mainly be
distributed in Tibet.
For S. nepalense , by the 2050s, the area of total suitable
habitat would increase to 13.43 × 104km2 (SSP1 - 2.6) and 12.42 × 104km2 (SSP5 - 8.5), and the gained territory would be in
Southern Tibet and Northwest Sichuan. By the 2070s, the areas would
increase to 12.70 × 104 km2 (SSP1 -
2.6) and 36.86 × 104 km2 (SSP5 -
8.5), and the gained territory would be in Southern Tibet, Northwest
Sichuan, and Southwest Gansu. The decreased areas would be fewer, and
they would mainly be located in parts of Tibet and Yunnan.
For S. yunnanense , by the 2050s, the area of total suitable
habitat would increase to 34.15 × 104km2 (SSP1 - 2.6) and 41.42 × 104km2 (SSP5 - 8.5), and Southern Shaanxi, Southern
Shanxi, Northern Henan, and Central Shandong would be the new provinces.
By the 2070s, the areas would increase to 26.87 × 104km2 (SSP1 - 2.6) and 89.29 × 104km2 (SSP5 - 8.5), and Southwestern Xinjiang, Southern
Tibet, Northern Sichuan, Southern Shaanxi, Southern Gansu, Northern
Henan, and Central Shandong would gain new territory. The decreased
areas would mainly be distributed in parts of Guangxi, Fujian,
Chongqing, and Yunnan.