FIGURE 6 Alterations to possible geographical distributions ofSatyrium ciliatum, Satyrium nepalense, and Satyrium yunnanense in climate change scenarios
In regard to future changes in suitable habitat areas, both the gained and lost areas of Satyrium will increase in emission concentrations; however, the gained area will be larger than the lost area (Figure 6). According to SSP5 - 8.5, the number of increased and decreased areas were the highest compared with the current simulation results. For S. ciliatum , by the 2050s, the area of total suitable habitat would increase to 9.65 × 104km2 (SSP1 - 2.6) and 12.63 × 104km2 (SSP5 - 8.5), and the gained territory would be in Southern Tibet and Northwest Sichuan. By the 2070s, the areas would increase to 9.56 × 104 km2 (SSP1 - 2.6) and 26.33 × 104 km2 (SSP5 - 8.5), and the new territory would be in Southern Tibet, Northwest Sichuan, and Northern Yunnan. The decreased habitat would mainly be distributed in Tibet.
For S. nepalense , by the 2050s, the area of total suitable habitat would increase to 13.43 × 104km2 (SSP1 - 2.6) and 12.42 × 104km2 (SSP5 - 8.5), and the gained territory would be in Southern Tibet and Northwest Sichuan. By the 2070s, the areas would increase to 12.70 × 104 km2 (SSP1 - 2.6) and 36.86 × 104 km2 (SSP5 - 8.5), and the gained territory would be in Southern Tibet, Northwest Sichuan, and Southwest Gansu. The decreased areas would be fewer, and they would mainly be located in parts of Tibet and Yunnan.
For S. yunnanense , by the 2050s, the area of total suitable habitat would increase to 34.15 × 104km2 (SSP1 - 2.6) and 41.42 × 104km2 (SSP5 - 8.5), and Southern Shaanxi, Southern Shanxi, Northern Henan, and Central Shandong would be the new provinces. By the 2070s, the areas would increase to 26.87 × 104km2 (SSP1 - 2.6) and 89.29 × 104km2 (SSP5 - 8.5), and Southwestern Xinjiang, Southern Tibet, Northern Sichuan, Southern Shaanxi, Southern Gansu, Northern Henan, and Central Shandong would gain new territory. The decreased areas would mainly be distributed in parts of Guangxi, Fujian, Chongqing, and Yunnan.