Predicting future records

In this section, we provide our best attempt at predicting the records for the next decade using our proposed framework. We fit Weibull models using all available records since 1968, presenting forecasts for the years 2022-2032. We hope this will help evaluate the performance of the method a decade from now, and other researchers who might want to benchmark their results against ours. We report our results for each year as a credence interval. We highlight the 5%, 15%, 50%, 85%, and 95% quantiles of the prediction. An example forecast is presented in Figure 6, and a panel of the forecasts for all of the men's events is presented in Figure 7. Tables containing the forecasts for all events, as well as individual plots for each event, can be found in Appendix B.