We present the results for CAPRI Round 54, the 5th joint CASP-CAPRI protein assembly prediction challenge. The Round offered 37 targets, including 14 homo-dimers, 3 homo-trimers, 13 hetero-dimers including 3 antibody-antigen complexes, and 7 large assemblies. On average ~70 CASP and CAPRI predictor groups, including more than 20 automatics servers, submitted models for each target. A total of 21941 models submitted by these groups and by 15 CAPRI scorer groups were evaluated using the CAPRI model quality measures and the DockQ score consolidating these measures. The prediction performance was quantified by a weighted score based on the number of models of acceptable quality or higher submitted by each group among their 5 best models. Results show substantial progress achieved across a significant fraction of the 60+ participating groups. High-quality models were produced for about 40% for the targets compared to 8% two years earlier, a remarkable improvement resulting from the wide use of the AlphaFold2 and AlphaFold-Multimer software. Creative use was made of the deep learning inference engines affording the sampling of a much larger number of models and enriching the multiple sequence alignments with sequences from various sources. Wide use was also made of the AlphaFold confidence metrics to rank models, permitting top performing groups to exceed the results of the public AlphaFold-Multimer version used as a yard stick. This notwithstanding, performance remained poor for complexes with antibodies and nanobodies, where evolutionary relationships between the binding partners are lacking, and for complexes featuring conformational flexibility, clearly indicating that the prediction of protein complexes remains a challenging problem.

Estimating the accuracy of quaternary structural models of protein complexes and assemblies (EMA) is important for predicting quaternary structures and applying them to studying protein function and interaction. The pairwise similarity between structural models is proven useful for estimating the quality of protein tertiary structural models, but it has been rarely applied to predicting the quality of quaternary structural models. Moreover, the pairwise similarity approach often fails when many structural models are of low quality and similar to each other. To address the gap, we developed a hybrid method (MULTICOM_qa) combining a pairwise similarity score (PSS) and an interface contact probability score (ICPS) based on the deep learning inter-chain contact prediction for estimating protein complex model accuracy. It blindly participated in the 15th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP15) in 2022 and ranked first out of 24 predictors in estimating the global accuracy of assembly models. The average per-target correlation coefficient between the model quality scores predicted by MULTICOM_qa and the true quality scores of the models of CASP15 assembly targets is 0.66. The average per-target ranking loss in using the predicted quality scores to rank the models is 0.14. It was able to select good models for most targets. Moreover, several key factors (i.e., target difficulty, model sampling difficulty, skewness of model quality, and similarity between good/bad models) for EMA are identified and analayzed. The results demonstrate that combining the multi-model method (PSS) with the complementary single-model method (ICPS) is a promising approach to EMA.

Predicting the quaternary structure of protein complex is an important problem. Inter-chain residue-residue contact prediction can provide useful information to guide the ab initio reconstruction of quaternary structures. However, few methods have been developed to build quaternary structures from predicted inter-chain contacts. Here, we introduce a gradient descent optimization algorithm (GD) to build quaternary structures of protein dimers utilizing inter-chain contacts as distance restraints. We evaluate GD on several datasets of homodimers and heterodimers using true or predicted contacts. GD consistently performs better than a simulated annealing method and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method. Using true inter-chain contacts as input, GD can reconstruct high-quality structural models for homodimers and heterodimers with average TM-score ranging from 0.92 to 0.99 and average interface root mean square distance (I-RMSD) from 0.72 Å to 1.64 Å. On a dataset of 115 homodimers, using predicted inter-chain contacts as input, the average TM-score of the structural models built by GD is 0.76. For 46% of the homodimers, high-quality structural models with TM-score >= 0.9 are reconstructed from predicted contacts. There is a strong correlation between the quality of the reconstructed models and the precision and recall of predicted contacts. If the precision or recall of predicted contacts is >20%, GD can reconstruct good models for most homodimers, indicating only a moderate precision or recall of inter-chain contact prediction is needed to build good structural models for most homodimers. Moreover, the accuracy of reconstructed models positively correlates with the contact density in dimers.