The estimation of demographic parameters is a key component of evolutionary demography and conservation biology. Capture-mark-recapture methods have served as a fundamental tool for estimating demographic parameters. The accurate estimation of demographic parameters in capture-mark-recapture studies depends on accurate modeling of the observation process. Classic capture-mark-recapture models typically model the observation process as a Bernoulli or categorical trial with some detection probability conditional on a marked individual’s availability for detection (e.g., alive, or alive and present in a study area). Alternatives to this approach are underused, but may have great utility in capture-recapture studies. In this paper we explore a simple concept: in the same way that counts contain more information about abundance than simple detection/non-detection data, the number of encounters of individuals during observation occasions contain more information about the observation process than detection/non-detection data for individuals during the same occasion. Rather than using Bernoulli or categorical distributions to estimate detection probability, we demonstrate the application of zero-inflated Poisson and gamma-Poisson distributions. This allows for inference on availability for encounter (i.e., temporary emigration), as well as a wide variety of parameterizations for heterogeneity in the observation process. We demonstrate that this approach can accurately recover demographic and observation parameters in the presence of individual heterogeneity in detection probability, and discuss some potential future extensions of this method.

Sex ratios affect population dynamics and individual fitness, and changing sex ratios can be indicative of shifts in sex-specific survival at different life stages. While climate- and landscape-change alter sex ratios of wild bird populations, long-term, landscape scale assessments of sex ratios are rare. Further, little work has been done to understand changes in sex ratios in avian communities. In this manuscript, we analyse long-term (1961-2015) data on five species of ducks across five broad climatic regions of the United States to estimate the effects of drought and long-term trends on the proportion of juvenile females captured at banding. As waterfowl have a 1:1 sex ratio at hatch, we interpret changes in sex ratios of captured juveniles as changes in sex-specific survival rates during early life. Seven of twelve species-region pairs exhibited evidence for long-term trends in the proportion of juvenile females at banding. The proportion of juvenile females at banding increased for duck populations in the western United States and typically declined for duck populations in the eastern United States. We only observed evidence for an effect of drought in two of the twelve species-region pairs, where the proportion of females declined during drought. As changes to North American landscapes and climate continue and intensify, we expect continued changes in sex-specific juvenile survival rates. More broadly, we encourage further research examining the mechanisms underlying long-term trends in juvenile sex ratios in avian communities.

Heterogeneity in the intrinsic quality and nutritional condition of individuals affects reproductive success and consequently fitness. Understanding differences in energy allocation towards survival and reproduction within and among years might help explain variability in individual fitness. Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) are long-lived, migratory, specialist herbivores. Long migratory pathways and short summer breeding seasons constrain the time and energy available for reproduction, thus magnifying life-history trade-offs. These constraints, combined with long lifespans and trade-offs between current and future reproductive value, provide a model system to examine the role of individual heterogeneity in driving life-history strategies and individual heterogeneity in fitness. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to examine reproductive trade-offs, modeling the relationships between within-year measures of reproductive energy allocation and among-year demographic rates of individual females breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska using capture-recapture and reproductive data from 1988 to 2014. We provide evidence for relationships between breeding probability and clutch size (posterior mean of β = 0.45, 95% CRI = 0.33 – 0.57, SD = 0.06), breeding probability and nest initiation date (posterior mean of β = -0.12, 95% CRI = -0.2 ¬– -0.04, SD = 0.04), and an interaction between clutch size and initiation date (posterior mean of β = -0.12, 95% CRI = -0.2 – -0.04, SD = 0.04). Average lifetime clutch size also had a weak positive relationship with survival probability (posterior mean of β = 0.03, 95% CRI = -0.01 – 0.7, SD = 0.02). Our results support the use of demographic buffering strategies for black brant; reductions in reproductive energy allocation preserve high adult survival rates during years with poor environmental conditions, maximizing future reproductive value. We also indirectly show links among environmental conditions during growth, fitness, and energy allocation, highlighting the effects of early growth conditions on individual heterogeneity, and subsequently, reproductive investment.