Species distribution and habitat selection models frequently use data collected from a small geographic area over a short window of time to extrapolate patterns of relative abundance to unobserved areas or periods of time. However, these types of models often poorly predict how animals will use habitat beyond the place and time of data collection because space-use behaviors vary between individuals and are context-dependent. Here, we present a modelling workflow to advance predictive distribution performance by explicitly accounting for individual variability in habitat selection behavior and dependence on environmental context. Using global positioning system (GPS) data collected from 238 individual pronghorn, (Antilocapra americana), across 3 years in Utah, we combine individual-year-season-specific exponential habitat-selection models with weighted mixed-effects regressions to both draw inference about the drivers of habitat selection and predict space-use in areas/times where/when pronghorn were not monitored. We found a tremendous amount of variation in both the magnitude and direction of habitat selection behavior across seasons, but also across individuals, geographic regions, and years. We were able to attribute portions of this variation to season, movement strategy, sex, and regional variability in resources, conditions, and risks. We were also able to partition residual variation into inter- and intra-individual components. We then used the results to predict population-level, spatially and temporally dynamic, habitat-selection coefficients across Utah, resulting in a temporally dynamic map of pronghorn distribution at a 30x30m resolution but an extent of 220,000km2. We believe our transferable workflow can provide managers and researchers alike a way to turn limitations of traditional RSF models - variability in habitat selection - into a tool to improve understanding and predicting animal distribution across space and time.

Quantifying spatiotemporally explicit interactions within animal populations facilitates the understanding of social structure and its relationship with ecological processes. Data from animal tracking technologies (Global Positioning Systems [“GPS”]) can circumvent longstanding challenges in the estimation of spatiotemporally explicit interactions, but the discrete nature and coarse temporal resolution of data mean that ephemeral interactions that occur between consecutive GPS locations go undetected. Here, we developed a method to quantify individual and spatial patterns of interaction using continuous-time movement models (CTMMs) fit to GPS tracking data. We first applied CTMMs to infer the full movement trajectories at an arbitrarily fine temporal scale before estimating interactions, thus allowing inference of interactions occurring between observed GPS locations. Our framework then infers indirect interactions – individuals occurring at the same location, but at different times– while allowing the identification of indirect interactions to vary with ecological context based on CTMM outputs. We assessed the performance of our new method using simulations and illustrated its implementation by deriving disease-relevant interaction networks for two behaviorally differentiated species, wild pigs (Sus scrofa) that can host African Swine Fever and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) that can host Chronic Wasting Disease. Simulations showed that interactions derived from observed GPS data can be substantially underestimated when temporal resolution of movement data exceeds 30-minute intervals. Empirical application suggested that underestimation occurred in both interaction rates and their spatial distributions. CTMM-Interaction method, which can introduce uncertainties, recovered the majority of true interactions. Our method leverages advances in movement ecology to quantify fine-scale spatiotemporal interactions between individuals from lower temporal resolution GPS data. It can be leveraged to infer dynamic social networks, transmission potential in disease systems, consumer-resource interactions, information sharing, and beyond. The method also sets the stage for future predictive models linking observed spatiotemporal interaction patterns to environmental drivers.

Ecological context – the particular environment, and how it shapes mixing dynamics and individual susceptibility surrounding infectious disease events – can have major bearing on epidemic outcomes, yet directly comparable disease events with contrasting ecological contexts are relatively rare in wildlife systems due to concurrent differences in host genetics or pathogen strain. Here, we present a case study of one such event: a spillover of a “goat-clade” Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae strain into one bighorn sheep population that played out against two very different ecological backdrops. One event occurred on the herd’s home range near the Rio Grande Gorge in New Mexico, while the other progressed in a captive facility at Hardware Ranch in Utah. We collected data on antibody and pathogen load patterns through time at the individual level, and examined demographic responses to pathogen invasion to compare the intensity of, and in-host responses to, infection in both settings. While data collection regimens varied between the two sites, general patterns of antibody expansion and gross timing of symptoms were consistent. Symptoms emerged in the captive setting 12.9 days post-exposure, and we estimated an average time to seroconversion among the captive animals of 24.9 days. Clinical signs peaked among the captive animals at approximately 36 days post-infection, consistent with subsequent declines in symptom intensity in the free-ranging herd. At the captive site, older animals exhibited more severe declines in body condition as determined through declines in loin thickness, higher symptom burdens, and a decelerated antibody response to the pathogen. Younger animals were more likely than older animals to clear infection at or before the time of sampling at both sites. This study presents one of the richest datasets on immune responses in bighorn sheep over the course of a newly introduced M. ovipneumoniae strain available to-date.

The ongoing explosion of fine-resolution movement data in animal systems provides a unique opportunity to empirically quantify spatial, temporal, and individual variation in transmission risk and improve our ability to forecast disease outbreaks. However, we lack a generalizable framework that can leverage movement data to quantify transmission risk and how it affects pathogen invasion and persistence on heterogeneous landscapes. We developed a flexible framework “Movement-driven modeling of spatio-temporal infection risk” (MoveSTIR) that leverages diverse data on animal movement to derive metrics of direct and indirect contact by decomposing transmission into constituent processes of contact formation and duration and pathogen deposition and acquisition. We use MoveSTIR to demonstrate that ignoring fine-scale animal movements on actual landscapes can mis-characterize transmission risk and epidemiological dynamics. MoveSTIR unifies previous work on epidemiological contact networks and can address applied and theoretical questions at the nexus of movement and disease ecology.