FIGURE
LEGENDS
Fig. 1 . Schematic of the
soil column showing variables used to represent permafrost dynamics,
modified after (Dobinski, 2011; Burke et al. , 2020; Elshamyet al. , 2020).
Fig. 2. Location of the
study area, temperature boreholes, and permafrost classification – the
two selected sites are highlighted in the focused view.
Fig. 3. Permafrost’s
annual maximum and minimum temperature profiles for A) 85-12-B borehole,
B) 99TC03 borehole.
Fig.
4. Detailed illustration of the
model configuration in terms of antecedent water condition. Numbers
between brackets above each bar correspond to the portions of liquid and
frozen water content for each experiment, respectively.
Fig.
5 . Summary of the
required number of spin-up cycles needed for model state variables to
reach equilibrium for A) JMC, and B) WH. For each climate condition, the
number of spin-up cycles is sorted in ascending order for all the 21
initial moisture scenarios in Fig. 4 . Dashed lines separate the
groups of climate experiments. Convergence criteria are 0.1°C for
temperature and 0.01 m3 m-3 for
liquid and frozen water.
Fig. 6. Temporal
progression of spin-up convergence of soil temperature, soil liquid
content, and soil frozen content at A) JMC site - Exp. Dry 7 (upper
row), B) WH site – Exp. Wet 17 (middle row), and C) WH site – Exp. Avg
10 (lower row). Layers below SDEP have no moisture; only heat can
transfer vertically between soil layers.
Fig.
7. Summary of the required numbers of spin-up cycles needed by all
state variables to reach equilibrium under different A) climate
conditions, and B) initial soil moisture; only experiments that formed
permafrost are included; black boxes correspond to the median of each
group of experiments in subplot B. The configuration Id label is as inFig. 4 .
Fig. 8 . Comparison of A)
cumulative daily precipitation, B) daily air temperature, C) histogram
of daily air temperature based on the selected five climate conditions
at WH site.
Fig. 9. Temporal
variation in A) external forcing, B) soil temperature, C) soil liquid
moisture content, and D) soil frozen moisture content for the first
spin-up cycle under Average climate (right panel) and cold climate (left
panel) for WH site.
Fig. 10. Soil temperature
(column A and B), soil liquid content (column C), and soil frozen
content (column D) at the end of the 2000 spin-up cycles at JMC site
(upper panel) and WH site (lower panel); shading indicates the range of
variability; each line represents an individual experiment; SDEP and
ODEP indicate depth to the bedrock and depth to the organic matter,
respectively. The presented state-variables are plotted at the middle of
each soil layer. *: B is zooming into A to the depth shown for C & D.
Fig. 11. Time series of
the error in the simulated ALT, and the mean RMSE of the simulated
annual temperature envelope (mean RMSE for Tmax and Tmin) among all the
configurations at JMC site (column A), WH site (column B). Dashed lines
separate the groups of climate experiments presented with the same
numeric order as in Fig. 4 ; A: Average, C: Cold, D: Dry, Wr:
Warm, and W: Wet. Gaps correspond to unavailable records.
Fig. 12. Time series of
the RMSE of the simulated annual temperature envelopes. The lines
represent the envelope mean, and the shadings represent the range of
total variability because of the initial moisture’s and climate
conditions’ uncertainties.
Fig. 13. Time series of
the simulated A) MAGTp, B) ALT-DOY, C) DZAA, and D) PB at JMC site
(upper panel), and WH site (lower panel), after the spin-up for 2000
cycles. The simulation label is as in Fig. 11 .