Winner and loser traits under changed nutrient and turbidity conditions (Q2.2)

Within the decreased nutrient and turbidity scenario of -25% (without temperature increase), we find that 78.1% of the species lose habitat (are losers), while 10.6% of all species win habitat (are winners). Differentiated into water depth zones, more species lose habitat in shallow water (78.7%) than in deep waters (29.4%), but more species win in deep water (43.7%) than in shallow water (7.0%). The general fit of the GLM explaining winner and loser traits under decreased nutrient and turbidity conditions is a Tjur’s of 0.344. All significant explanatory variables shown in Figure 4a. The loser traits ordered by increasing odds ratios are (significance codes of drop contribution in brackets): pMax (***), pWaveMort (***),reproDay (**), maxWeightLengthRatio (*) andhNutrient (**). If the value of these traits is bigger, it is more likely that the species is a loser under the given conditions. The winner traits are hWaveMort (***), hPhotoLight (***) andmaxWaveMort (**). If the value of these traits is bigger, it is more likely that the species is a winner under the given conditions.
In the increased nutrient and turbidity scenario (+25%) 15.0% of all species lose habitat, while 62.4% of all species win habitat. Here, we observe more losers in deep water (59.6%) than in shallow water (11.7%), but more winners in shallow water (63.7%) than in deep water (12.2%). The general fit of the GLM (Figure. 4b) that explains by traits if a species in this scenario is a winner or loser under increased nutrient and turbidity conditions (+25%), is a Tjur’s 0.404. The significant loser traits (significance codes of drop contribution in brackets) are germinationDay (*), hPhotoLight (***), hWaveMort (***), maxAge (**), and seedBiomass (*). The significant winner traits arepMax (***), pWaveMort (***), reproDay (***), andseedsEndAge (*).
A further winner and loser traits analysis under increased temperature is given in the Supporting Information (Appendix 2, Figure S2.11).