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\begin{document}

\title{Prediction of Cossus Linnaeus suitable growing area in China under
Future Climate change based on optimized MaxEnt Model and Geographic
detector}



\author[1]{hua zhang}%
\author[1]{ming li}%
\author[1]{jinyue song}%
\author[1]{wuhong han}%
\affil[1]{Northwest Normal University}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 24, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
CossusLinnaeus is a kind of insect that causes great harm to forest
trees in China, which has a great impact on the country's agriculture
and forestry, and seriously affects the stability of the ecosystem, so
it is very important to predict its distribution and contain it. Most
researchers use the MaxEnt model with default parameters to build models
to predict the potential geographical distribution of species. Recent
studies have found that in the case of default parameters, the
prediction results of MaxEnt model are not only inaccurate, but also
sometimes difficult to explain. In this paper, ENMeval packets are used
to adjust the optimal feature combination parameters of MaxEnt model,
and then the MaxEnt model with optimal parameters is used to predict the
potential geographical distribution of CossusLinnaeus under present and
future climatic conditions. The simulation results show that the
simulation effect of the MaxEnt model is good (the area under the ROC
curve (AUC = 0.914), Cossus Linnaeus is mainly distributed in Liaoning
Province, Hebei Province, Shandong Province, Henan Province, Shaanxi
Province, Shanxi Province, Ningxia and Gansu Province, etc., which is
consistent with the actual distribution results. Under future climatic
conditions, the area of Cossus Linnaeus high suitable growth area will
rise up 26.7\% to 87.4\% compared with the current one. Climate change
affects the potential distribution of Cossus Linnaeus, and the top four
environmental variables with contribution rate are normalized vegetation
index (NDVI,40.3\%), annual mean temperature (Bio1,24.1\%), coldest
monthly minimum temperature (Bio6,12.4\%) and diurnal range of mean
temperature (Bio2,9\%). Under the condition of future climate change,
the center of gravity of Cossus Linnaeus will move to high latitudes.
This study will provide theoretical support for the prevention and
control of Cossus Linnaeus and tree protection in China.%
\end{abstract}%



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