Conclusion

This paper presents a novel approach to exploring nature futures that combines a participatory visioning process with an analytical framework. We applied the approach to support the development process of National Park Hollandse Duinen, and designed the approach to test the Nature Futures Framework, a new framework for nature-centered scenario development. We found that the Nature Futures Framework enabled collaborative discovery of diverse perspectives on nature, and, in conjunction with the Three Horizons framework, enabled nature-centered visioning and pathway exploration. The analytical framework exposed the plurality captured in collaboratively created visions of nature futures of National Park Hollandse Duinen and provided insight into the potential contribution to the Agenda 2030. We found that the approach aligned well with the development process of National Park Hollandse Duinen for which it strengthened long-term thinking and plural valuation of nature, which got carried forward in the official landscape strategy for the National Park. While the approach as presented in this paper represents only a first step in the development of more integrated scenarios to inform policy and planning, we see large potential for its application in various contexts to scaffold discussions about the futures we want for nature and people, and how to achieve them.