Conclusion
This paper presents a novel approach to exploring nature futures that
combines a participatory visioning process with an analytical framework.
We applied the approach to support the development process of National
Park Hollandse Duinen, and designed the approach to test the Nature
Futures Framework, a new framework for nature-centered scenario
development. We found that the Nature Futures Framework enabled
collaborative discovery of diverse perspectives on nature, and, in
conjunction with the Three Horizons framework, enabled nature-centered
visioning and pathway exploration. The analytical framework exposed the
plurality captured in collaboratively created visions of nature futures
of National Park Hollandse Duinen and provided insight into the
potential contribution to the Agenda 2030. We found that the approach
aligned well with the development process of National Park Hollandse
Duinen for which it strengthened long-term thinking and plural valuation
of nature, which got carried forward in the official landscape strategy
for the National Park. While the approach as presented in this paper
represents only a first step in the development of more integrated
scenarios to inform policy and planning, we see large potential for its
application in various contexts to scaffold discussions about the
futures we want for nature and people, and how to achieve them.