bias in meta-decisions
Bias affect the conceptualization of research questions, conduction of
research, aggregating of evidence, publication, and the point of
decision-making. A common bias affecting meta-decision’s process is
cognitive bias. It is the systematic deviation of people’s thinking from
rational thought. It affects how questions are asked, aims are
determined, alternative decisions are developed, and whether there is
rationalization in decision-making. Therefore, cognitive bias is
negatively related to the quality of meta-decisions. Moreover, a type of
cognitive bias is the outcome bias, wherein a decision is judged as a
failure or responsible for one when it leads to undesirable
consequences, even if the decision was considered as acceptable prior.37 This is different from hindsight bias, where a
decision outcome seems inviable retrospectively. 38
Another relevant cognitive bias is confirmation bias, which is the
tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a
way that confirms one’s prior personal beliefs/ hypotheses. Here, the
process starts with a decision and not with a performance gap or need.
Moreover, in searching for alternatives, only those matching the
decision-maker’s agenda are sought, and the same applies when
rationalizing choices based on the criteria if this stage is reached.
Political bias has an important influence on meta-decision processes.
Although it is a very common influential factor, it may negatively
affect decisions because it restricts and distorts information flow and
draws decision-makers attention from patients, population, or
institution goals to their own preferences and self-interests.39 It is noteworthy that a combination of these biases
can occur.